I have been following the guy who put this discussion together for many years. He is one of the best forecasters in the country in my opinion.EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD112 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014VALID 12Z TUE MAR 25 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 29 2014...NOR'EASTER TO BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY...THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY REACHED INTO NORTHAMERICA SINCE JANUARY SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORETRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERNUNITED STATES TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS STILL LOW ACROSS THE EAST INTHE WAKE OF THE COLD BLAST DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SHORTRANGE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND ICEWITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HERALDING TUESDAY'S OUTBREAK. IT SEEMSTHAT THE CLIPPER WILL GAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO SIPHON SOMESUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST FROM THEGULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELSINDICATE THAT THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SET UPA DUMBBELLING WITH THE GULF ENERGY TOWARD EVENING TUESDAYSOMEWHERE OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE ATLANTIC"BENCHMARK" OF 40N/70W. THIS BINARY INTERACTION--OR FUJIWHARAEFFECT--IS A PARTICULARLY ENERGIZING PHENOMENON. BY EARLYWEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THEBENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBINGOCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TONEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THECHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS ANDSOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE. IF THE BOMBING ISLATER/FARTHER NORTHEAST, EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUFFER THEWORST EFFECTS. EITHER WAY, WINDS LOOK REMARKABLY STRONG ON THEWEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE TIGHT CIRCULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTOEARLY WEDNESDAY--A MAJOR CONCERN FOR COASTAL AND OFFSHOREINTERESTS FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO DOWN EAST MAINE.AFTER THE EAST-COAST STORM, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACROSS THENATION SHOULD RELAX SOME, THOUGH THE GENERAL BACKGROUND PATTERNAPPEARS TO REMAIN. USED A RECENT ECENS MEAN TO HANDLE THIS PHASEOF THE FORECAST. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED INSTRONG ONSHORE FLOW, WITH THE SOUTHWEST RELATIVELY SHELTERED DUETO THE SPLITTING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS WET,WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING VIA RESIDUAL BROAD TROUGHING.CISCO
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Latest Forecast Discussion From the Main National Weather Service Forecast Prediction Center Outside of Washington D.C.
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