Saturday, March 22, 2014

Latest Forecast Discussion From the Main National Weather Service Forecast Prediction Center Outside of Washington D.C.

I have been following the guy who put this discussion together for many years. He is one of the best forecasters in the country in my opinion. 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 25 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 29 2014
...NOR'EASTER TO BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY...
THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY REACHED INTO NORTH
AMERICA SINCE JANUARY SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS STILL LOW ACROSS THE EAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD BLAST DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SHORT
RANGE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND ICE
WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HERALDING TUESDAY'S OUTBREAK. IT SEEMS
THAT THE CLIPPER WILL GAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO SIPHON SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SET UP
A DUMBBELLING WITH THE GULF ENERGY TOWARD EVENING TUESDAY
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE ATLANTIC
"BENCHMARK" OF 40N/70W. THIS BINARY INTERACTION--OR FUJIWHARA
EFFECT--IS A PARTICULARLY ENERGIZING PHENOMENON. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THE
BENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBING
OCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TO
NEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE. IF THE BOMBING IS
LATER/FARTHER NORTHEAST, EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUFFER THE
WORST EFFECTS. EITHER WAY, WINDS LOOK REMARKABLY STRONG ON THE
WEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE TIGHT CIRCULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY--A MAJOR CONCERN FOR COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
INTERESTS FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO DOWN EAST MAINE.
AFTER THE EAST-COAST STORM, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE
NATION SHOULD RELAX SOME, THOUGH THE GENERAL BACKGROUND PATTERN
APPEARS TO REMAIN. USED A RECENT ECENS MEAN TO HANDLE THIS PHASE
OF THE FORECAST. THE NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNSETTLED IN
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, WITH THE SOUTHWEST RELATIVELY SHELTERED DUE
TO THE SPLITTING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS WET,
WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENING VIA RESIDUAL BROAD TROUGHING.
CISCO

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