Thursday, March 20th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can now access this blog at the following web addresses: theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us

There is a chance that we could be experiencing something historic next week...

But first, we will see some very nice weather tomorrow with a high in the mid to upper 40's.

On Saturday we will have a chance of a shower and it will be warm, with a high in the low to mid 50's.

Sunday will be nice with a high in the mid 40's.

On Monday the Polar Vortex will move back into Southeastern Canada, supplying the Northeastern United States with cold air once again.

Also on Monday, a storm system will dive southward into the Central Plains States from Canada at the same time that another storm system moves eastward along the Gulf Coast.

These two storms are likely to combine somewhere near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Tuesday afternoon.

The storm will then intensify rapidly as it moves northeast to a point about 150 miles off the New Jersey Coast on Tuesday night and then to about 100 miles southeast of Cape Cod by Wednesday morning.  By this point there is a chance that the storm could reach an intensity that would rival or surpass many of the strongest Nor'easters in history.

It the storm track outlined above verifies we would have a significant snowfall, and yes there is no question that we would be dealing with snow with this storm. This is a snow or no snow situation at this point.

I have done substantial analysis to come to the conclusions listed above and I do not make these statements lightly.

My current probabilities for this storm are as follows:

Probability that the storm completely misses us or does not form - 40%

Probability of receiving at least some snow - 60%

Probability of a very significant snowstorm - 37.5%

To throw out another interesting probability I worked up, if this storm does affect us, I calculate a 50% probability that this is one of the most intense Nor'easters in history.

Now, to calm people down a bit.  Please remember there is still a 40% chance this storm doesn't happen, or that if it does, it remains south or east of us.

Also, all of my probabilities listed above could go down the tubes tomorrow morning with the newest model runs.

Also, the piece of energy responsible for producing this storm does not come on shore from the Pacific Ocean until Saturday morning and won't be in the models until Saturday afternoon, so things could very easily drastically change at that time.

Please realize that this storm track will likely change a bit over the next few days and a track further out to sea would mean a complete miss or less snow and a track closer to the coast would mean more snow and more wind.

Unfortunately, the models did trend closer to us today, and I am afraid that this trend may continue.

One more thing.  This is a potential Nor'easter.  The three other storms that most recently missed us to the north and south were not.  They were a different type of storm.  I don't remember a single Nor'easter that missed us this past winter at all and every one of them trended closer to the coast as we got closer to the storm.  If this were to happen with this storm we could really be looking at something for the record books.

Again, as it stands tonight there is a 40% chance this storm completely misses us, but there is a 60% chance of at least some snow, and a 37.5% chance of a very signification snowstorm.  Also, if we are affected by this storm, there is a 50% chance that this storm becomes one of the most intense Nor'easters in recorded history.

Here are a couple of links to other storms that currently look similar, as depicted by the most recent computer guidance available.  Click here for a link to the day after Christmas storm of 2010 that pummeled Northeastern New Jersey with 3 feet of snow and coastal sections of Massachusetts with 80 mph winds. And click here for a link to the 1993 Storm of Century that hit the entire East Coast in March of 1993 with hurricane force winds and three and a half feet of snow in some places.

Of course, this could all go away tomorrow morning and we could have beautiful days on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Please join me in the morning to see what Mother Nature has in store for us next week.

Have a wonderful evening.