Wednesday, March 19th, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

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Well, things may get more than a little interesting along the East Coast next week....

First though, it will warm up tomorrow and Friday with a high tomorrow around 50 and in the mid 40's on Thursday.

Saturday we will have a chance of some showers with a high in the low 50's.

Sunday we will then have a chance of rain or snow showers during the day, and snow showers at night, with a high in the low 40's.

Monday the Polar Vortex will move back into Southeastern Canada, supplying cold air to the Eastern United States and giving us highs in the mid 30's with sunshine... The calm before the storm...

On Monday night and Tuesday morning one storm will be dropping down from Canada into the Central Plains States at the same time that another storm is moving along the Gulf Coast.  These storms will start to phase together, deepening the storm moving along the Gulf Coast and causing it to start turning northeast.

The two pieces are likely to phase completely phase near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Tuesday night. This will cause the storm to become very intense and it will still be intensifying as it moves northeast.

The storm should move to a position approximately 150 miles off the coast of New Jersey by early Wednesday morning.  By this time the storm should be very intense and we should have some snow falling in our area, although if this track verifies the heaviest snow would stay to our east.

The storm should then move northeast to a position about 100 miles southeast of Cape Cod by Wednesday morning.

As I said before, this storm may become extremely intense, in fact it has the potential to become the most intense winter-type storm I have seen on the models in our area since the day after Christmas blizzard of 2011 that brought 70 mph winds and 3 feet of snow to areas of Northeastern New Jersey.

Now, the track that is currently being depicted by the models for this storm keeps it far enough off shore that we would merely be side-swiped by it, bringing us only a chance for some light snow and strong winds. However, the track can easily change and most likely will vary a bit on future model runs.  Any further westward track would impact our area much more and any further eastward track could cause the storm to miss us completely.

Keep in mind this storm could absolutely miss us completely, there is no question about it.  However, there is also a chance it could hit us, and this storm appears to have the potential to bring someone very severe weather in the form of heavy snow and very strong winds.  In fact, it has the potential to be one of the strongest storms in a long time.

Of course maybe the models are just messing with us and it will all disappear in the morning.  Join me back here in the morning to find out.

The good news is that this is likely winter going out with a Grand Finale, and may very well be our last chance at any significant snow.

Have a nice evening.