Saturday, April 12th, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, the National Weather Service now has a chance of rain and snow for Tuesday night.  You heard that here already about a week ago.  First though…

We will have an absolutely beautiful weekend with only a slight chance of a shower early tomorrow morning and a high today in the upper 60’s and in the mid to upper 70’s tomorrow.

Monday the clouds will increase with a chance of showers developing at night, so the warmest day is likely to be Sunday instead of Monday.  The high on Monday will however still make it to the low to mid 70’s.

Tuesday things are likely to be a bit crazy with heavy showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front approaches from the west.  The temperatures will be in the low to mid 60’s in the morning, and then drop to the mid to upper 30’s at night, with the possibility of the showers mixing with or changing to sleet or snow late at night.

Wednesday the low will drop to the low to mid 30’s in the morning, with a chance of some lingering light snow or sleet in the early morning hours.  During the day it should be variably cloudy with a high only in the mid 40’s.  Then at night there is a chance of a low pressure area forming along the front just off the coast.  If this low pressure area does develop it could throw some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday night.  This precipitation would likely fall in the form of snow with the fresh cold air in place after the cold frontal passage in the morning.  If this storm does develop the snow would likely linger into early on Thursday.

Right now the European model ensembles are suggesting a 50% chance of receiving a bit of sleet or snow on either Wednesday morning as the cold front passes or on Wednesday night with the possible storm forming along the stalled out front.  If we do see any snow or sleet on Wednesday morning it would likely be very light and insignificant, with very little chance of it causing any problems.  If however the storm forms along the front on Wednesday and brings us snow on Wednesday night, that one could be significant.  There is about a 25% chance of the storm forming and bringing us a significant snowstorm on Wednesday night. 

So, to sum it up, there is a 50% chance that we will see some sleet or snow on either late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning or on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with a 25% chance of seeing a significant snowstorm on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

After this possible storm passes on Thursday morning we will have cool weather on Thursday with a high in the low 50’s.

Temperatures will then warm for the Easter weekend with a high on Friday in the upper 50’s, rising to the 60’s on Saturday and Sunday, although there will be a chance of a shower both days.

The following week should then be quite nice with highs in the 50’s early in the week, rising to the 60’s by late in the week.