Tomorrow won't be anywhere near as nice with a chance of showers and a high in the low 60's, but Saturday will be quite nice with a high around 70.
We will again have a chance of a shower on Sunday but it will be quite warm with a high in the low 70's.
Monday should then be amazing as warm air surges north into our area ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The high on Monday should make it into the mid to upper 70's.
Tuesday will then be quite interesting as the strong cold front approaches our area. This cold front will bring us heavy showers and strong and possibly severe thunderstorms and temperatures dropping from around 60 in the morning to 40 by evening, and then to the mid 30's by around midnight. As temperatures continue to fall early on Wednesday morning the rain may change to sleet, freezing rain, and possibly even some snow before ending around 5 am on Wednesday morning.
Whether or not we receive any ice and snow on Wednesday morning, and how much, will be dependent upon whether a storm forms along the cold front near the Gulf Coast on Tuesday. If this storm does form, where it then tracks will determine if or how much ice and snow we get. Right now the European model ensembles are suggesting a 50% chance of at least some ice or snow with this system, although some of the ensemble members hold the storm off until later on Wednesday or even until Thursday morning, with a possible break between when the cold front passes on Tuesday night and when the storm finally gets here. Other members suggest that it is just a changeover to ice and snow on Wednesday morning as I mentioned previously. Of course the other 50% say forget about it, it is isn't going to happen. Interestingly the ensemble members not only suggest a 50% chance of some ice and snow some time on Wednesday or Thursday, but they also suggest a 25% of a significant ice and snow storm.
Please keep in mind that while there is a 50% of seeing some ice or snow on Wednesday or Thursday, this also means that there is a 50% chance we won't. So, equal chances either way. At this moment just take it for what it is worth, an interesting possibility. Of course I am highly skeptical. Snow this late in the season is quite rare, although the state climatologist says that it can snow in Northern New Jersey until April 30, although I am pretty sure it has snowed in May in the past. The latest recorded measurable snow in New York City was 3 inches on April 25, 1875. Click here to view a very interesting link to late season snow in the Northeast.
The reason this is even a possibility is that the Polar Vortex will once again visit Southeastern Canada behind the cold front, so if this storm forms and pushes precipitation in behind the front and into the cold air, that would indeed produce snow, even if it does get to 80 degrees the day before. The temperatures the day before mean nothing. I remember the March 31-April 1st snowstorm in 1997. It was nearly 70 degrees the day before that one and I got 18 inches in Northwest New Jersey. I also remember the one on April 6-7 and we got 12 inches with that one. I am NOT saying that we will get snow with this possible storm next week, in fact, honestly I am highly skeptical myself, but I am saying that there is currently a 50% chance that we will see some ice or snow next week, and that is pretty amazing in itself.
Click here to view the site where the state climatologist says it can snow in Northern New Jersey until April 30.
Also view below the two big April snowstorms that have occurred in my lifetime in our area, although I am certain there were many smaller ones later in the month.
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