Saturday, August 23, 2014

Saturday, August 23, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

A hurricane may threaten the East Cost…

There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today with a high around 70.  Some clearing is likely this evening. 

Tomorrow through Tuesday will be mostly sunny with highs rising from the mid 70’s tomorrow to the low to mid 80’s by Tuesday.

A hurricane may develop in the Bahamas on Tuesday and should head northward.  Right now it looks as if the storm will remain off shore, just brushing the Outer Banks of North Carolina and leaving Northern New Jersey and the New York City area mostly sunny through Friday with highs in the mid 80’s on Wednesday, the mid to upper 80’s on Thursday, then dropping to the upper 70’s on Friday.  That is based on the latest track of the European model.  If however the storm tracks further east as the American models and the consensus track show, the storm would threaten the entire East Coast. 

The European model currently keeps the storm off shore, threatening only the Outer Banks of North Carolina with some showers and thunderstorms.

The American models bring the storm inland near Miami, then into South Florida, before turning the storm northward, up the East Coast.

The current consensus track of all the models brings the storm to within about 50 miles of the Florida East Coast before turning the storm northward and then out to sea. 

The difference between the models is with the timing and strength of a cold front that should approach our area on Wednesday.  If this cold front is stronger than the models currently depict, the storm would be pushed out to sea.  If the cold front is weaker than currently projected, the storm would likely impact Florida and affect the entire East Coast.  We will have to keep a close eye on this storm. 

After the storm passes there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms next weekend as a cold front approaches.  The highs should be around 80 on Saturday and in the mid to upper 80’s on Sunday as warm air surges into our area ahead of the cold front.

Next Monday through Thursday should then be mostly sunny behind the cold front with highs ranging from the mid 70’s to the mid 80’s.

Next Friday there will again be a chance of showers and thunderstorms as another cold front approaches.  Highs will be in the low 70’s.

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