Saturday, October 25, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

An interesting forecast on the horizon for next Saturday, and very possibly for the following weekend as well, as there seems to be no break from last winter in the interaction of the Polar Jet Stream with the Southern one…

First though, we will have a nice weekend with just a slight chance of a shower early tomorrow morning.  Highs will be in the low to mid 60’s today and around 60 tomorrow.

Monday and Tuesday will be very nice with highs around 60 on Monday and 70 on Tuesday as warm air surges north into our area ahead of the next cold front.

Wednesday a cold front will pass through our area, bringing us a slight chance of shower and highs in the mid to upper 60’s.

Next Thursday will be very nice with highs in the mid 50’s.

Next Friday for Halloween day we will have increasing cloudiness as a storm system starts to approach the East Coast.  Highs will be in the low to mid 50’s, dropping to the mid to upper 40’s by trick or treat time. 

Friday night the storm system that will be approaching the East Coast may cause a Nor’easter to form near the Middle Atlantic Coast.  This will cause rain to develop around or shortly after trick or treat time.  Temperatures will drop through the 40’s and into the 30’s on Halloween night next Friday.  It is possible that the rain could mix with or change to snow late on Friday night, especially in the higher elevations.

Saturday is an interesting forecast.  Will a Nor’easter develop from the upper level low pressure area as it nears the Middle Atlantic Coast?  If one develops, will it develop near the coast, or out to sea?  It is simply too early to tell at this point.  I give the odds of a significant Nor’easter developing near the Middle Atlantic Coast next Saturday at 50% at this point.  Depending on how and where this storm develops, if it does at all, it could bring us some rain or snow next Saturday into Sunday morning.  If the Nor’easter forms near the coast and intensifies, there would be copious cold air just to our north available for this storm to pull into our area, as the cold front passed through only a couple of days prior. 

Right now it is simply too early to tell what will happen next Saturday.  If the Nor’easter develops and affects our area it could be rain or snow depending on the intensity of the storm (a stronger storm would be able to pull more cold air down from the north).  If the Nor’easter develops and pulls the cold air down, highs temperatures would likely not get out of the 30’s on Saturday with rain or snow throughout Northern New Jersey.  If the storm does not form, or is weaker, highs temperatures could reach the 40’s and it could even clear out on Saturday and be a nice day if the storm is far enough out to sea or does not develop. 

If there is a storm next weekend, it should come to an end by next Sunday morning, clearing us out by next Sunday afternoon, with highs possibly only around 40 to the low 40’s.

Next Monday and Tuesday should then be quite nice, with temperatures warming from the mid 40’s on Monday to the low 50’s on Tuesday.

Next Wednesday another cold front will approach, bringing a chance of showers in the afternoon and at night with highs in the mid to upper 50’s.

Next Thursday and Friday there will be variably cloudy skies and a chance of showers with highs in the mid 60’s.

Then for the following weekend, here we go again as there will be a chance of another Nor’easter developing along the Middle Atlantic Coast, bringing us another chance for rain or snow next Saturday.  Stay tuned…

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