Sunday, October 12, 2014

Sunday, October 12, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

The end of October has proven in the past to be a very volatile period of time for the weather in Northern New Jersey.  This year looks no different…

The first frost of the season occurred in some locations of Northern New Jersey this morning.  I saw the first frost at my location this morning as the low reached 33.7

This week we will see cool temperatures today and tomorrow, followed by temperatures rising to the low to mid 70’s on Tuesday and Wednesday as warm air starts to surge northward into our area ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure area.

On Thursday the strong upper level low pressure area will be approaching our area, bringing with it a very moist wind flow off the ocean.   This will likely cause rain to become heavy at times on Thursday with the possibility of some flash flooding.

Things will then clear out from Friday through Monday.  High temperatures will be in the upper 60’s on Friday and Saturday, dropping to the upper 50’s next Monday and the mid 50’s next Tuesday.   

Things could then get quite interesting as we head into the middle of next week…

There is the chance that a piece of strong energy will drop down from the Northern Jet Stream from Canada into the Southeastern United States, at the same time that a strong piece of energy moves northward from the Southern Jet Stream out of the Gulf of Mexico or from near the Bahamas.  There is then the chance that these two pieces could combine and become a strong Nor’easter along the East Coast around next Wednesday.  If this were to occur it could bring us some pretty bad weather for the middle of next week, with heavy rains, strong and gusty winds and cool temperatures.  We will have to keep an eye on this to see how it all works out.  Right now I give this scenario at least a 50% chance of happening.  Stay tuned…

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