Wednesday, October 29, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

A cold front will move through tomorrow, bringing a chance of showers, followed by colder weather on Thursday and Friday.

On Halloween night a strong upper level low pressure will drop down from Canada and will start to approach the East Coast.

It is now appearing as if this strong area of upper level low pressure will dive quite far to the south from Canada, probably reaching as far south as the North/South Carolina Coast.  Honestly, for a strong upper level low (really a part of the Polar Vortex) to drop that far south, this early in the season, is just amazing.

Anyway, for a piece of the Polar Vortex to drop that far south, it will almost certainly induce strong cyclogenesis when it hits the warm ocean off the Carolinas and the Gulf Stream waters.

The storm with then intensify rapidly as it heads Northeast and up the Coast.

The big questions are how fast this storm will develop and how close it will come to the coast as it makes its track to the Northeast.

If the storm develops rapidly it be able to pull cold air down from the north more rapidly as temperatures are likely to start out in the 40's on Friday night as the light rain starts to fall some time late on Friday night or early on Saturday.

If the storm takes its time developing and tracks a bit further off shore it will keep temperatures in the mid 40's and warm enough for rain during the day on Saturday before colder air starts to filter in on Saturday night.  As the colder air starts to filter in late on Saturday night any remaining precipitation would start to mix with and then change to snow by Sunday morning, if the storm comes close enough.

Another possibility is that this storm intensifies rapidly when it reaches the coast and tracks closer to the coast.  This would allow the storm to pull colder air into it and change the rain to snow earlier in the day on Saturday.  Right now, that is not the most likely scenario, but it remains a real possibility that we need to keep a close eye on.

Please join me again early tomorrow morning for the latest on this potential Nor'ester on Saturday.

Have a nice evening and thanks for reading.

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