Saturday, November 15, 2014

Saturday, November 15, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

This is one of those afternoons where there were simply stunning changes with the longer range data, specifically for the few days prior to Thanksgiving...
  
First though, it will be cold again tomorrow and there is a chance of light snow developing around 10 pm, then changing to rain by around 1 am.  The low on Sunday morning should be in the mid to upper 20’s and the high in the low 40’s.

Monday we will have rain, possibly heavy at times in the afternoon.  The rain could change to snow flurries after 10 pm before ending.  The high on Monday should be in the low to mid 40’s.
  
Tuesday through Thursday should then be mostly sunny but quite cold with lows in the mid to upper 20’s on Tuesday morning, the mid teens to low 20’s on Wednesday morning, and the low to mid 20’s on Thursday morning.  Highs will be only in the upper 20’s to low 30’s on Tuesday, the low to mid 30’s on Wednesday and the upper 30’s to low 40’s on Thursday.
  
Friday there will be a chance of rain or snow with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.
  
Next weekend should be mostly sunny with lows in the low to mid 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Then things are likely to get VERY INTERESTING as I have been seeing signs in the data of the potential for severe weather around next Tuesday and Wednesday for several days now.  I am just not yet certain as to whether we will be dealing with severe thunderstorms and heavy flooding rains, or possibly a major East Coast storm or possibly even Nor'easter. 

The data has been going back and forth between a cold front with severe thunderstorms and flooding rains, to the possibility of a strong storm developing over the Southeastern United States, possibly becoming quite intense and possibly even transforming into a Nor'easter.  It is just amazing to watch the data go back and forth on each consecutive run.  What this is telling me is that we need to watch the time frame of next Tuesday and Wednesday very closely as something big may happen around that time.  There are signs that the storm could start as early as next Sunday night and could even last into Wednesday morning.  I just can’t tell you whether we are dealing with a strong cold front with severe thunderstorms and flooding rains or the potential for a long duration heavy snowfall or something in between. 

With all this in mind and with the insane uncertainty in the data for next Monday through Wednesday, I am not even going to attempt a temperature forecast at the moment as high temperatures could range anywhere from the mid to upper 20’s if a Nor'easter develops to the upper 50’s if we are dealing with a cold frontal passage and severe thunderstorms.

I am also quite concerned with this storm potential as next Wednesday is the busiest travel day of the year.

Beyond that, it will likely get colder for Thanksgiving and the weekend after, with the concern for the potential of a storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and track northeast, threatening our area with snow for Black Friday or next Saturday.

Honestly, the potential is there for some very severe weather of some sort for early next week from Monday through Wednesday, possibly starting as early as next Sunday night.  I am also concerned about the potential for a strong storm to threaten our area for Black Friday or next Saturday. 

Please check back in the morning for the latest.  Anyone planning on travelling for the holiday should check back here for regular updates.
  
Oh yes, and we still need to watch early Monday morning, Monday night, and next Friday for a bit of the white stuff as well.  Stay tuned. 

Have a wonderful evening.

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