Saturday, November 22, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, the data took a serious turn in a bad direction overnight.  There is now a chance of a major Nor’easter for the busiest travel day of the year on Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning and unfortunately again on Sunday for those who may want to return from wherever it is they were going…

First though, I can’t believe how cold it got this morning.  I recorded the coldest temperature so far this year at my location as the temperature dropped to 15 degrees at about 5 o’clock this morning.  This was about 5 degrees colder than I expected, but is a serious sign of the cold air that is around our area currently, but is about to get pushed out of here in a big way. 

It will be nice this morning with increasing cloudiness this afternoon.  The high today will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

Tonight there is a slight chance of a bit of light rain or light freezing rain that will continue into early tomorrow morning, so anyone travelling late tonight should be on the lookout for that possibility. 

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer with a high in the low 50’s.

Monday rain will develop early in the morning around midnight or 1 am and will continue heavy at times until the late morning, then there will be a chance of showers in the afternoon.  It will be quite warm on Monday as warm air surges northward into our area ahead of an approaching cold front.  The high on Monday will be in the mid 60’s.

Tuesday will be variably cloudy as the cold front moves through.  The high temperature will occur early in the morning with highs in the mid to upper 50’s, dropping to the low 50’s by afternoon.

Early Wednesday morning a Nor’easter is likely to start developing along the stalled out cold front about 50-100 miles off the coast of Jacksonville, Florida.  This would bring a chance of snow early on Wednesday morning as far south as the Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Western Georgia, Western South Carolina, and Western North Carolina.  

The storm will then move due north on Wednesday morning, reaching a point near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina by around noon on Wednesday, then about 100 miles off the New Jersey coast on Wednesday night, then into the Gulf of Maine by Thursday morning. 

If the projected track outlined above verifies, it would cause snow to break out in Northern New Jersey and the New York City area between around 6-8 am on Wednesday, with moderate snow developing around 9-10 am and heavy snow developing around 2-3 pm and continuing moderate to heavy at times until around 11 pm, then light to moderate at times until around 5 am on Thanksgiving morning. 

Significant, potentially very significant, accumulations would be possible in an area from around the Southern Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina and Western North Carolina, up through Western Virginia including Richmond and the I-95 corridor, through Washington D.C and Baltimore, Philadelphia and the Eastern half of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey except possibly Southeastern Coastal New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Eastern New York State, and all of New England excluding possibly far Eastern Long Island and far Southeastern Massachusetts. 

The potential is there for amounts of 6-12 inches or more throughout the area outlined above. 

ALL OF THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON MY PROJECTED TRACK VERIFYING!!!    

If my track is off or if the storm does not develop as I am projecting, then this won’t happen like this. 

This is however my best guess at the moment.

We would then be left with a chance of snow showers the rest of Thanksgiving Day and even a chance of a snow shower for Black Friday and next Saturday. 

Then another storm may very well approach, bringing another chance for snow next Sunday and Monday. 

Please be sure to check back for updates. 

THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS TRACK COULD CHANGE, LEAVING US WITH NOTHING.  But, this is my best guess at this time and I felt it was important to get this out there considering that we are talking about the potential for this to occur during the busiest travel day of the year. 

Have a great day and be sure to check back for updates this afternoon and evening. 

REMEMBER, IF THERE ARE ANY CHANGES YOU WILL HEAR IT HERE FIRST!!!

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