Sunday, November 16, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

The data is going crazy.  I don’t trust the data past this coming Wednesday.  We are in a very volatile weather pattern and anything is possible after the next few days as the chaos theory that is so important with weather prediction is winning the battle…

Right now it is 38 degrees at my weather station but moderate to heavy precipitation is moving  northward through Central New Jersey currently and will arrive here over the next 2 hours or so.  When the precipitation starts it will cause temperatures to rapidly drop about 6 degrees, or to near or slightly below freezing in many locations.  It may start as snow or sleet for a few hours but the temperatures will then rise and it should change to rain in most locations.  In some of the colder locations where it is already around 35 degrees, temperatures will drop to around 29 degrees which could mean some freezing rain as well before ground temperatures finally warm above freezing prior to daybreak.  There could very well be some travel problems tonight and early tomorrow morning, so please keep that in mind and be careful if driving tonight.

Tomorrow we will have rain that will be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening, before it ends late at night, possibly as some flurries.

It will then be very cold for the middle of the week before temperatures finally moderate a bit for the weekend.  However, we still have to watch for the outside chance of a storm for Friday, or for the chance of some moisture working its way into our area on Saturday when it will still be quite cold.  Right now, it does not appear that either one of those things is likely, but they still remain possibilities.

Then for Sunday through Wednesday morning we should be dealing with much warmer weather and a chance for rain, possibly heavy at times, especially on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. 

Then it will get cold and anything is possible for Thanksgiving Day through the weekend after.  It will likely be colder and there are many chances for storms to develop, but at the moment they only remain chances. 

Chaos theory at its best.

Have a nice evening and please be careful if driving tonight as the temperatures will likely fall quickly to near freezing once the precipitation starts here shortly. 

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