A major snowstorm
is likely for the most densely populated area of our country at the busiest
time for travel. The timing could not be worse…
First though, it
will be variably cloudy and warmer today with highs in the low 50’s.
Tonight rain will
develop around 11 pm and become heavy at times overnight and into tomorrow
morning around 9-10 am. There will then
be a chance of scattered showers the rest of the day with highs in the mid to
upper 60’s.
A cold front will
then move through early on Tuesday morning so the high temperatures will occur
early in the morning with highs in the mid to upper 50’s, dropping to the upper
40’s to low 50’s by afternoon. We should
have mostly sunny skies.
Then all the fun
begins very early on Wednesday morning as a low pressure area will start to
develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico about 50 miles west of Tampa Bay and Fort
Meyers, Florida. This low pressure area
will then move northeastward across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday morning,
reaching a point about 50 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. It will then start to develop into a Nor'easter
and head northward up the East Coast of the United States reaching a point near
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Wednesday afternoon. The storm will be strengthening as it is
moving northward. It will then reach a
point about 100 miles off the coast of New Jersey on Wednesday night, then continue
north to a point near Cape Cod, Massachusetts, then finally to a point in the Gulf of Maine on
Thursday morning.
If this track verifies
as I have outlined above, a major snowstorm would be likely Wednesday into
Thanksgiving morning for the Western Carolinas, Virginia (excluding
southeastern sections), Eastern West Virginia, Maryland (excluding extreme
southeastern sections), Delaware (excluding southeastern sections), the eastern
half of Pennsylvania, New Jersey (excluding possibly coastal sections), the
eastern half of New York State including New York City and the western half of
Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts (excluding southeastern
Massachusetts), all of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
In these areas a
large swath of 6-12 inches of snow will be likely with the possibility of
localized amounts of 12-18 inches and localized amounts as much as 12-20 inches
in New England.
There will also be a chance of a bit more snow on Saturday morning and again on Sunday night into Monday morning.
It should then warm
up after that for a while.
SO NOW, LET’S
DISCUSS WHAT COULD GO WRONG WITH THIS FORECAST.
REMEMBER, THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON THINGS WORKING OUT AS I HAVE
OUTLINED ABOVE.
One thing that
could go wrong is that the storm could track further east, leaving us with much
lower snowfall amounts. The second
possibility is that the storm could track closer to the coast. As you already probably noticed, I have
excluded many of the coastal areas from the heavy snow area as the storm may
come just close enough to the coast to allow some warm air to filter in there,
keeping it mainly rain or a mix right along the coastal areas. If the storm were to track closer to the
coast or even inland it would allow warm air to filter in much further inland,
causing rain to fall in many of the areas that I currently have designated as
snow. This is definitely still possible,
although obviously I am not currently expecting that to happen. It does however remain a possibility, especially
in areas such as New York City and Western Long Island and possibly even into
Northeastern New Jersey and Southern New Jersey. Again, I don’t expect this at this time, but
it is something that IS still possible.
I will certainly tell you immediately if my thoughts change.
The next thing to
rant about is this:
The European model
and the British model have the storm outlined very much along my line of
thinking. The European model got to my
line of thinking early yesterday morning and the British model also came in
line this morning. Meanwhile, our American
model just only now caught onto the storm.
Unfortunately, it is the older version of the model that they are
planning to get rid of at the beginning of January that caught the storm this
morning.
The newer version of the model, that they just spent a ton of money on to upgrade the computers and so on, is still nearly completely clueless about the storm.
The newer version of the model, that they just spent a ton of money on to upgrade the computers and so on, is still nearly completely clueless about the storm.
What is amazing is
that they want to get rid of the older version of the model at the beginning of
January and start using this newer version of the model that still does not
depict the storm affecting us.
Meanwhile the European and British models are right on track with my thoughts.
We are also paying Russia 70 million dollars per launch to take our astronauts into outer space because we don't currently have the ability to do this either.
We have a lot of work to do in this country.
Have a great day
today and please tell all of your family members and friends about this blog.
Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.
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