Sunday, November 9, 2014 - Evening Weather Discussion

Chance of a bit of snow, possibly only snow flurries but possibly a bit more on Friday.  Then my Nor’easter potential for Sunday into Monday with the small chance for EXPLOSIVE development and then the Polar Vortex arrives after my potential storm with low temperatures possibly dropping to the low to mid teens with highs not breaking out of the 20’s next Wednesday…

First though, it will be nice tomorrow and Tuesday with gradually warming temperatures ahead of the next cold front.  The low tomorrow morning will drop to the mid to upper 30’s and highs will rise to the mid to upper 50’s while lows will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s on Tuesday morning with highs rising to the low to mid 60’s.

Wednesday there will be a chance of showers with some clearing possible late in the day.  The low on Wednesday morning will be in the low 50’s and the high on Wednesday will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.

Thursday will be mostly sunny with increasing cloudiness late in the day.  The low will be in the mid 30’s and highs will be in the mid to upper 40’s.

Friday there will be a chance of some flurries, snow showers, or light snow with lows dropping to the mid to upper 30’s and highs around 40.  There is a slight chance that this storm could develop into a little more but there is also a chance we only get a few flurries. 

Saturday will be quite nice but cold with lows in the mid to upper 20’s and high in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

Then my potential storm of interest for over a week now…  I will copy the next few paragraphs from the discussion this morning as it still applies.  I will however add a 4^th option to this and that is the potential for EXPLOSIVE development IF all the pieces come together just right (or wrong) depending on how you look at it.  If the pieces were to merge, that is one piece from the Southern Jet Stream moving along the Gulf Coast, with a strong piece of energy from the Polar Vortex, then this storm would have the potential to develop in an explosive manner.  That is the 4^th option that should be added to the three below.  Which will it be?  Only time will tell. 

Next Sunday an interesting situation may start to develop in the Eastern United States.  This is the storm potential that I have been talking about for more than a week now.  A storm may be moving eastward along the Gulf Coast in the Southern Jet Stream at the same time that a piece of energy is moving southeastward from Canada in the Northern Jet Stream.  The two system MAY merge over the Southeastern United States late on Sunday.  If they merge (much as happened about two weeks ago in the Southeast when there was record snow in South Carolina), it would bring heavy snow once again to the Southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and on to the northeast. 

The next question would be the track that the storm takes.  If the storm tracks inland and eventually right over New Jersey, it would bring heavy snow to inland sections through Central Pennsylvania and Central New York State and rain to coastal sections and all of New Jersey.  If it takes a track toward Cape Hatteras and then northeast up the coast to a point about 50-100 miles off of New Jersey (as I have been thinking all along is the most likely track), it would bring heavy snow into Washington D.C, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.  If it takes a track to Cape Hatteras, but then further out to sea it could miss nearly everyone north of Southern Virginia. 

So, which will it be?  It is simply too early to tell.  Right now I give about equal odds to all three possibilities, so be sure to check back for an update this evening.

Sunday will start out mostly sunny but clouds will increase in the afternoon with a chance of snow developing at night and continuing through the night.  The snow may mix with or change to rain depending on the track of the storm.  The low on Sunday morning will be in the mid to upper 20’s with highs in the low 40’s.

Next Monday there will be a chance of rain or snow with lows in the low to mid 30’s and highs in the mid 30’s.

Next Tuesday there will be a chance of rain or snow ending early in the morning, then clearing with lows dropping to the mid to upper 20’s and highs in the mid 30’s.

Next Wednesday the Polar Vortex will be entering our area.  It will be mostly sunny but VERY COLD with lows dropping to the low to mid teens on Wednesday morning and the highs only in the upper 20’s. 

Next Thursday will start out nice but clouds will increase in the afternoon.  The low will be in the mid to upper teens and the highs will be in the mid 30’s.

Next Friday there will be a chance of snow with lows in the low to mid 20’s and highs in the low 30’s.

Next Saturday should be mostly sunny with lows in the low to mid 20’s and highs in the mid 30’s.

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