Much of what I have been saying the past two days still applies, so yeah a cut and paste with some minor changes along the way again...
Well, all the people who were disappointed when we got freezing rain instead of snow last week may end up very happy this weekend…
Showers will move in tomorrow afternoon and night, ending by Wednesday morning, then we will have a slight chance of a rain or snow shower Wednesday afternoon and evening. The highs should be in the mid 40’s both tomorrow and Wednesday.
Thursday and Friday should then be mostly sunny but cooler with highs in the mid to upper 30's on Thursday and the mid 30’s on Friday.
Saturday a storm system will start to develop along the Gulf Coast at the same time that another storm drops down from Canada into the Central Plains States. These two systems are likely to merge in the Southeastern United States and start moving northeastward, strengthening as it does so. The storm should reach a point about 50 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Sunday afternoon.
If the track above verifies we would have a very significant snowstorm here in Northern New Jersey next Saturday night and Sunday. The snow could start in Northern New Jersey as early as Saturday afternoon or as late as Sunday morning but will most likely start on Saturday evening and last until Sunday evening, but could last into early Monday morning.
With the track outlined above, I would expect a widespread area of 6-12 inches of snow with localized amounts of 12-18 inches from Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas, through Kentucky, Northwestern Tennessee, extreme Southern Ohio, West Virginia, the Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, the Western two thirds of Virginia (including Washington D.C., and possibly Richmond), Maryland (including Baltimore, but excluding the DelMarva), extreme Northern Delaware (including Dover), Pennsylvania (excluding Northwestern Pennsylvania), Northern New Jersey (a line from about Trenton to Edison and north), Southeastern New York State and New York City (excluding Eastern Long Island), Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts (including Boston but excluding extreme Southeastern Massachusetts). The Bull's Eye for this storm right now looks to be Northern Virginia just west of Washington D.C. and Western Maryland (west of Baltimore), where localized amounts could exceed 18 inches.
This is IF the track I outlined above verifies. This storm is very different from the last storm to affect our area and for that matter, that storm was one that we won’t likely see again anytime soon with a storm working its way back from Bermuda. This storm will have lots of cold air to work with to our north, unlike the previous storm and won’t be attacked by warm air moving in off the ocean like the last one. The one thing that could prevent this storm from affecting our area is that the strong high pressure area over Canada could become so strong that it pushes this storm to the south of us and out to sea, giving a big snowstorm to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Southern New Jersey. The other possibility is that the high pressure area over Canada would become a bit weaker and allow the storm to work its way further north. If that were to happen then we could warm up and get rain. The one thing I really don’t expect though is any freezing rain with this storm. The track I outlined above is the way I see it now, subject to change of course, so don’t go changing any plans just yet.
The storm should end on Sunday evening or possibly go into early Monday morning, and then Monday and Tuesday should be pretty nice before the next storm system threatens our area on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. This storm would result from another storm system dropping down from Canada and potentially merging with a storm moving along the Gulf Coast, then moving northward along the East Coast. Depending on how this storm develops we would be looking at a chance for either rain or snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Also, this storm has the POTENTIAL to become quite intense, so we need to keep a close eye on it. This one initially looks as if it could just as easily be rain as snow though, so we will have to wait and see how it develops and the exact track that it takes.
After that potential storm passes we will be facing yet another threat for a significant storm the Sunday after Christmas and again for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.
Yeah, this winter is likely to be BAD!!!
Have a wonderful evening!
If you want to escape the cold, freezing rain, and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.
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