Monday, December 15, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Much of what I said all day yesterday still applies, so yeah a cut and paste with some minor changes along the way...

Well, all the people who were disappointed when we got freezing rain instead of snow last week may end up very happy next week… 

We will continue to have variably cloudy skies today, and then showers will move in tomorrow afternoon and night, ending by Wednesday morning, then Wednesday will be variably cloudy.  The highs should be in the low 40’s today, the low to mid 40’s tomorrow and the mid 40’s on Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday should then be mostly sunny but cooler with highs in the mid 30’s.

Saturday a storm system will start to develop along the Gulf Coast at the same time that another storm drops down from Canada into the Central Plains States.  These two systems are likely to merge in the Southeastern United States and start moving northeastward, strengthening as it does so.  The storm should reach a point about 50 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Sunday morning. 

If the track above verifies we would have a very significant snowstorm here in Northern New Jersey next Saturday night and Sunday morning.  The snow could start in Northern New Jersey as early as Saturday afternoon or as late as Sunday morning. 

With the track outlined above, I would expect a widespread area of 6-12 inches of snow with localized amounts of 12-18 inches from Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas, through Western and Northern Kentucky, extreme Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Southern Ohio, West Virginia, the Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, the Western two thirds of Virginia (including Washington D.C., and possibly Richmond), Maryland (including Baltimore, but excluding the DelMarva), extreme Northern Delaware (including Dover), Pennsylvania (excluding Northwestern Pennsylvania), Northern New Jersey (a line from about Trenton to Edison and north), New York State east of the Great Lakes (including Southeastern New York and New York City but excluding Long Island), Connecticut, the Western three quarters of Massachusetts (just west of Boston), Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.   

This is IF the track I outlined above verifies.  This storm is very different from the last storm to affect our area and for that matter, that storm was one that we won’t likely see again anytime soon with a storm working its way back from Bermuda.  This storm will have lots of cold air to work with to our north, unlike the previous storm and won’t be attacked by warm air moving in off the ocean like the last one.  The one thing that could prevent this storm from affecting our area is that the strong high pressure area over Canada could become so strong that it pushes this storm to the south of us and out to sea, giving a big snowstorm to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland and Southern New Jersey.  The other possibility is that the high pressure area over Canada would become a bit weaker and allow the storm to work its way further north.  If that were to happen then we could warm up and get rain.  The one thing I really don’t expect though is any freezing rain with this storm.  The track I outlined above is the way I see it now, subject to change of course, so don’t go changing any plans just yet. 

The storm should end on Sunday afternoon or evening, and then Monday and Tuesday should be pretty nice before the next storm system threatens our area on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  This storm would result from another storm system dropping down from Canada and potentially merging with a storm moving along the Gulf Coast, then moving northward along the East Coast.  Depending on how this storm develops we would be looking at a chance for either rain or snow on Christmas Eve and snow on Christmas Day. 

After that potential storm passes we will be facing yet another threat for a significant storm the Sunday after Christmas and again the following Wednesday. 

Yeah, this winter is likely to be BAD!!!

Have a great day!

If you want to escape the cold, freezing rain, and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  

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