A major Nor’easter is likely to develop near the Middle
Atlantic Coast for Tuesday and Wednesday…
First though, we will have increasing cloudiness tomorrow
with light rain, light sleet, or light snow developing in the evening and
quickly changing to light rain and continuing overnight. The highs tomorrow will be in the upper 30’s
to low 40’s.
Saturday we will have showers in the morning and rain, heavy
at times in the late afternoon and at night.
Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 40’s.
Sunday the rain will end in the morning, and then it will
clear out with highs in the upper 30’s.
The storm that produced the rain on Saturday and Saturday
night will exit the East Coast of the United States and head out to sea,
reaching Bermuda. At the same time a
strong upper level low pressure area will be dropping down from Central Canada
and into the Great Plains, then the Great Lakes. This strong upper level low pressure area,
combined with strong blocking over the Central and Northern Atlantic will cause
the low that passed through on Saturday and will be sitting over Bermuda to
make a left hand turn and start heading back toward us. This low will be strengthening as the upper
level low pressure area over the Great Lakes starts to transfer its energy to
the low moving back toward us from Bermuda.
This will cause clouds to increase again on Monday and snow to develop
on Monday evening. The high on Monday will be in the low to mid
30’s.
As the storm continues to gain strength from the transfer of
energy from the strong upper level low over the Great Lakes, I believe it will
finally reach a point about 50 miles off the New Jersey Coast by Tuesday
morning. This will cause snow to fall
heavy at times on Monday night and Tuesday.
The storm will then move northeast, heading toward Cape Cod and the Gulf
of Maine by Tuesday night, strengthening as it does so and keeping us under
snow, heavy at times until Tuesday evening when it should finally start to wind
down here, ending at night on Tuesday.
If this all works out as I outlined above I think there
would be a chance for snowfall accumulations in excess of one foot in Northern
New Jersey and the possibility of more than that with the outside chance of
this storm approaching blizzard status.
Now, this is all dependent upon things working out as I
outlined above. There are many things
that could change this forecast. One
thing that could happen is that the storm could take a track further out to sea,
causing much lower snowfall totals, or even the chance of sunny skies if it is
far enough out to sea. Another possibility
is that the storm could track further west or even track inland which would
allow warm air to move in off the ocean and change us to ice or rain. These things are always possibilities with
storms like this. I said to many people
today that these types of storms have the potential to produce 2-3 feet of snow
in one place and nothing at all just 50 miles away. Often there is a very fine line between rain
and snow and snow and sunny skies. After
all, it is the instability in the atmosphere that produces such incredible
storms in the first place.
I remember a few years back when Northeastern New Jersey got
hit by a blizzard with 3 feet of snow while far Northwest New Jersey got only a
few inches and Northeastern Pennsylvania got nothing at all. And only two days before the storm hit it
looked like no one would get anything at all, and there was a forecast for
sunny skies by the National Weather Service and all the local news
outlets. Then again, I was right here
mentioning the possibility of a monster Nor’easter with blizzard potential when
they were talking about sunny skies two days away. Yeah, that one happened and Bergen County got
3 feet of snow, while I in Northwest New Jersey got 3 inches and my neighbors
in Monroe County, Pennsylvania just across the river got nothing at all. That is the type of storm this one may turn
out being. Yeah, it could completely miss
us and we end up with sunny skies (I feel this is highly unlikely). We could get sideswiped by the storm and get only
a dusting or a few inches (a very real possibility). The storm could go inland and we get snow
changing to rain (a real possibility but I don’t think it will happen). Or we could get a very intense Nor’easter that
will come close to attaining blizzard classification with the possibility of
thunder snow and more than a foot of snow, possibly well in excess of a foot of
snow in some places ( I feel this is a possibility as well). In fact, I believe there will be an area somewhere
between Virginia and Maine that will receive 2-3 FEET of snow. Of course maybe Mother Nature will just laugh
at us and it will be sunny (always a possibility with weather). Remember, weather is based in chaos theory
and we may be seeing some chaos in the Northeastern United States early next
week, maybe.
Anyway, after this potential storm passes we should get some
well-deserved nice weather for Thursday through Sunday with highs in the upper
30’s next Thursday, around 40 next Friday and the low 40’s next Saturday and
the mid 40’s next Sunday.
Then our next chance for rain or snow will be next Monday
evening through Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 30’s.
Please join me in the morning to see what Mother Nature decides for us...
If you
want to escape the cold and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in
Florida. Click here to
view his company website.
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