Wednesday, December 10, 2014 - Morning Weather Discussion

Well, trying to forecast this storm was a rather humbling experience and I have a really big headache now…

So, a few things went wrong.  Some on my part and some on the part of the way the model handled the storm.  Of course, we can just blame Mother Nature too if we want.  Anyway, this is what I enjoy so much about trying to forecast these storms.  Of course, I enjoy it much more when I get it right like I did with the previous storm, not so much when I mess it up as I did with this one. 

So, what happened?  First some of the potential snow ended up being freezing rain at the beginning of the storm in Northwestern NJ, then the main part of the storm that was supposed to bring extremely heavy precipitation that should have dynamically cooled the atmosphere and changed the rain over to heavy snow for a few hours never happened, as the storm decided at the last minute to make a right hand turn and go over Long Island instead.  Now the main part of the storm has moved just a touch further north than the models had thought and so we are just on the southern fringe of the storm today and tomorrow.  So, some of these things I should have seen and others were unforeseeable, so yeah, I consider this a busted forecast on my part and I will try to do better next time.  Thanks for hanging in there with me.

Now I pick myself up and move forward…

Today and tomorrow we will have waves of snow showers move through that will likely bring us a dusting to an inch or two of accumulation both today and tomorrow, with the highest accumulations across the higher elevations of Northern New Jersey.   In general I would expect total accumulations to be 1-2 inches in most places with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations and lower amounts likely as you head toward Central New Jersey and near the Hudson River where it will be a bit warmer. 

After this storm finally moves away we will have nice days Friday through Monday, then the next storm will move in for next Tuesday night and Wednesday as either rain or snow. 

Then we will have nice days next Thursday and Friday before the next storm moves in for next weekend and there are plenty of signs that this may again be another big Nor’easter.  However, as usual, the type of precipitation is yet to be determined.  I will be much more cautious this time. 

Those of you who follow me know that I do a pretty darn good job of seeing these storms and getting their placement right from a long way out.  In honesty, it is a miracle that I get them right as often as I do.  These mixed precipitation events are extremely difficult to forecast and are prone to busts.  I will definitely be more cautious next time if I see the potential for a mix. 

Have a great day and thanks for coming back and reading this.  I really appreciate it.

If you want to escape the cold, freezing rain, and snow, my dad owns a real estate company in Florida. Click here to view his company website.  

Follow this blog @ TheEdgeWeather on Twitter.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses: edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.us, and edgeweather.us