Monday, January 26, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

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This will likely be a historic blizzard for Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY, New York City, Long Island, and Southwestern CT where around 2 FEET of snow is likely.  The rest of our area should receive 1-2 FEET, except far western sections of Northern NJ where 8-12 inches is more likely as the storm has moved just a bit east from yesterday.  Northeastern Pennsylvania will likely get 3-8 inches from west to east.

Winds will gust 30-50 mph in Northern NJ and 50-80 mph on Long Island, so there will be considerable blowing and drifting of the snow with snow drifts of 2-4 feet or more likely, especially in Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY, New York City, Southwestern CT and Long Island, where drifts could be up to 6 feet in some locations.

Many roads in Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY, New York City, Southwestern CT, and Long Island will become impassable by late Monday night or early Tuesday morning.  There will be many motorists stranded on the roadways by tomorrow morning and expect many roadways to be closed in Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY, New York City, Southwestern CT, and Long Island.  This will be a life-threatening condition for anyone stranded on the roadways as with the heavy snow and blowing snow, visibility will be near zero for many hours on Tuesday.  Snow will accumulate above the exhaust pipes of stranded cars, leading to the possibility of carbon monoxide poisoning.  Please don’t put yourself in that position.  If you must work tonight or tomorrow and you live in Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY, New York City, Southwestern CT, or on Long Island, please make preparations to stay there until at least Wednesday night or Thursday, until roads are cleared.

If you have not already done so, and you live in Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY State, New York City, Southwestern CT, or on Long Island, you should be certain to have an alternative source of heat in case of power outages as trees and limbs will come down due to the strong winds.  In addition, the power crews won’t be able to start repairing the power lines in many locations until at least late Wednesday if not Thursday or Friday.  So make preparations for the possibility of isolated long duration power outages.   

As for extreme western sections of Northern NJ and Northeastern Pennsylvania, the storm has shifted slightly east in the most recent model run, so it looks as if these areas may very well get less than a foot, especially in Northeastern Pennsylvania and as you head further west from the Delaware River.  In fact, I have seen many times in the past where these types of storm have a very quick drop off in snowfall totals.  I remember the blizzard a few years ago that gave Bergen County 3 feet and gave far Western NJ as little as 3 inches and the blizzard in 1996 that gave areas of Central and Northern NJ up to 3 feet of snow and Scranton, PA in Northeastern PA got nothing at all.  That is the nature of these types of intense Nor’easters.  The biggest storms often have a very narrow cut off where you can easily go from 2-3 feet to nothing in only 30-40 miles, so if this eastward trend were to continue, then western sections could very well get even less.  However, I don’t expect much to change in areas further to the east.  I think it is a done deal there and for Central NJ. 

Moving beyond this storm, it will get quite cold with lows around zero by Thursday morning.  Then we will have a chance of a dusting to an inch or so of snow on Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak storm system approaches from the west.

Saturday should be mostly sunny but cold with lows in the single digits and highs only in the low 20’s.

Sunday will be mostly sunny in the morning but clouds will increase in the afternoon as a storm approaches our area from the Southeastern United States.  Lows Sunday will be in the single digits and highs only around 20.

There will be the potential for significant snowfall Sunday night and next Monday with highs only in the teens as the storm approaches from the Southeast. 

Next Tuesday and Wednesday should be nice but VERY COLD with lows around zero and highs only in the teens.

Next Thursday night and Friday morning there will be a chance of some light snow, followed by a nice day next Saturday.

There will then be another chance for a Nor’easter to develop next Sunday, bringing a chance for more snow.

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