Well, I watched one forecaster on New York television (I
like the guy but don’t usually like his forecasts) say that Northwest NJ would
get 0-2 inches last night while Northeast NJ would get 2-4 inches. I saw the National Weather service fail to
issue a Winter Storm Warning until after 6 inches of snow was already received. It is always great to get the information
about how much snow you will actually get AFTER it has occurred. I also watched the American medium range
global model that we just spent a bazillion dollars on to upgrade, perform the
worst of any of the major global medium range models, suggesting that we would
only get an inch or two of snow.
Honestly, the old American medium range model that they just got rid of
was better in the shorter term. I am not perfect either and messed up a couple
of them this winter already and I realize that, but I also don’t do this for a
living and you would certainly expect better out of them. But this is pretty typical. Anyway, moving forward we may have a MAJOR
Nor’easter along the East Coast on Tuesday and dare I say it again, with
BLIZZARD potential for Eastern Long Island and New England…
The storm moved in much quicker with the bulk of its precipitation
than expected and hence has moved out quicker than expected. I had received 7.5 inches by 6 am and very
little will be received the rest of today.
Tomorrow will be variably cloudy.
Monday a storm system will approach from the west, bringing
a chance of some light snow on Monday, starting around 1 am and continuing
throughout the day (possibly with a break in the afternoon). The majority of the snow should remain to our
south however, with the possibility of only a dusting to an inch in Northern
New Jersey.
Tuesday the storm will intensify rapidly as it reaches the
Middle Atlantic Coast, however the exact track that this storm takes will make
all the difference in the world. Right
now it appears as if this storm will remain just far enough off the coast to
keep us on the western fringe of the precipitation shield. We need to keep a VERY CLOSE EYE on this
situation as the European model manages to give Northwestern NJ a dusting to up
to 3 inches of snow on Tuesday while it gives Northeastern NJ 3-6 inches of
snow. It also brings Central NJ 3-6
inches of snow and Coastal NJ 6-9 inches of snow. It has about 6 inches of snow for New York
City, 6-12 inches for Western Long Island, and 12-15 inches for Central and
Eastern Long Island. It has a dusting to
5 inches for Southeastern New York State.
If the European model is right with this western track of the
storm, it would likely bring blizzard conditions to Eastern Long Island and Southeastern
New England where snowfall amounts would likely exceed a foot with strong winds
as well.
I am not yet convinced of this track for the storm
however. It is entirely possible that
the storm will track further to the east, keeping us dry on Tuesday. Of course, it is also possible that the storm
will track even further west, although I THINK it is more likely it will track
further east and have less affect on us.
We shall see. Join me later after
the next run of the European model this afternoon.
Colder air will also start to move in on Tuesday, so if it
does snow on Tuesday, it will be doing so with temperatures well below
freezing.
Beyond this storm, we will likely get a bit more snow on
Thursday night, followed by the chance of another significant Nor’easter for
next Sunday and Monday.
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