Sunday, January 18, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

The cold air was extremely stubborn about moving out of the colder locations of Northern New Jersey and I still have some freezing rain at my location this morning.  This was not expected at all and just shows you that sometimes Mother Nature will have her way.  Honestly though, these freezing rain events are often very difficult to forecast as the data often has a hard time determining whether the cold air near the surface will move out or get stuck there.  What happens is that the upper levels of the atmosphere warm rapidly on days such as this, but the cold air settles into the colder valleys and if there is little wind, the cold air just sits there.  That is what has happened in many locations this morning.  Temperatures should however eventually rise to the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

The rain could mix with or change to snow before ending tonight, although no accumulation is expected.

Tomorrow there will be a chance of flurry in the morning and the high will be in the mid 30’s.

Tuesday should be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 30’s.

Wednesday an Alberta Clipper type storm will approach from the west.  This storm could very well intensify as it nears the coast.  However, at the moment, much as happened with the last Alberta Clipper that approached our area, the storm could stay to our south, bringing us a chance of some light snow or flurries.  However, we will need to keep a close eye on the exact track of this storm which may not be known until Tuesday, as someone could see some accumulating if not borderline significant accumulations with this storm.  At this moment it time it appears that the most likely area to have the potential of borderline significant accumulations would be West Virginia, Northern Virginia, Maryland and Southern New Jersey.  The highs on Wednesday should be in the low to mid 30’s.

Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs around 30.

Friday we will likely have increasing cloudiness with a chance of snow developing as there is the chance that another storm will drop down from Canada and combine forces with a storm developing along the Gulf Coast.  If this were to occur we would need to watch the track of the storm to see how far up the East Coast this storm makes it and how close it comes to our area.  This one needs to be watched closely.  This is one of those potential all or nothing scenarios where you can easily end up with sunny skies on Friday and Saturday or a big snowstorm.  We will have to wait and see what happens.  Highs on Friday should be in the low 30’s and around 30 on Saturday.

Next Sunday should be nice with highs in the mid 30’s.

Next Monday we will have another chance of snow as two storms could again combine forces along the Middle Atlantic Coast.  The highs next Monday will be in the mid 30’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday should be nice but colder with highs in the low 30’s next Tuesday and only the mid to upper 20’s next Wednesday.

Next Thursday we will have another chance for snow as a storm approaches from the west.  The highs next Thursday should be in the mid to upper 20’s.

Next Friday and Saturday should be mostly sunny but cold with highs in the mid 20’s.

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