Thursday, January 22, 2015

Thursday, January 22, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

We may be on the fringes of an intense Nor'easter on Saturday, then more snow possible on Monday into Tuesday; then it gets VERY COLD with more snow chances next Thursday night and Friday and again the following Monday through Wednesday…

The storm last night really fizzled out at the last minute, giving most areas of Northern New Jersey only a light dusting. 

Tomorrow will be the calm before the storm.

An intense Nor'easter is likely to form along the East Coast on Saturday.  We may very well end up on the western fringes of the storm.  The European model has remained remarkably consistent with the placement of the low pressure system while the other models have moved in its direction.  Even the newly upgraded American model that we spent a bazillion dollars on has now figured out that it will probably snow on Saturday.  After we spent all this money to recently upgrade the model it is actually now WORSE than it was previously with East Coast storms out to about 6 days.  I wish they kept the old model out to 6 days.  The model actually does fairly well after 6 days, but who really needs that? 

Anyway, with us apparently being on the western fringes of this very intense Nor'easter on Saturday we will likely get 3-6 inches of snow on Saturday starting between around 1 am and 3 am and ending between about 8 pm and 10 pm at night.  Eastern Long Island and Southeastern New England may still end up with blizzard or near blizzard conditions. 

The exact track that this storm takes will determine the exact snowfall amounts.  Any track closer to the coast could dramatically increase snowfall amounts while any track further out to sea would drastically cut back on snowfall amounts.  Also, I must remind you that the storms this year have been consistent in finding ways to throw surprises at the last moment, so keep your guard up for surprises.  The storms have managed to find ways to miss us every time, except for just prior to Thanksgiving, but that was a different situation completely.  So, yeah, I am not confident here just yet at all. 

After this storm clears out on Saturday night, Sunday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower, then more snow is likely to move in on Sunday night and could continue through the day on Monday and possibly even into Tuesday morning.  This storm has the potential to be significant as well. 

After the storm moves out on Tuesday morning it will get VERY COLD Tuesday through at least next Wednesday with highs only in the teens and 20’s and lows possibly dropping BELOW ZERO on Wednesday morning, and in the single digits to teens through the rest of the two-week period.

There will again be a chance of some light snow next Thursday night and Friday, then a chance of a more significant snowstorm the following Monday through Wednesday. 

Well, off to the races we go.  Keep your guard up for surprises and let’s see what happens.

Please join me later for the latest available information. 

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