Yes, this one missed to the east. Remember how initially I
said that I thought this one would miss us to the south and east? Then the
models shifted it further north and west. Well, at the last minute they shifted
it south and east again. At least some of you in Northeastern NJ got to see a
blizzard a few years ago right after Christmas. I only got three inches with
that one while people in Bergen County got three feet. The last blizzard I saw
where I live was way back in 1996, almost 20 years ago, while Long Island got
one just two years ago when CNBC called me to be on national television. We
missed a big blizzard back in 2001 also that was supposed to give us three feet
but really gave us more like 3 inches, and such is the nature of these types of
intense storms. Some people get feet of snow while others only 50 miles away get
virtually nothing. Even the one in 1996 that gave many people in Northern NJ 3
feet, gave parts of Northeastern Pennsylvania nothing at all.
Small changes make big differences and the models have a
hard time in resolving these issues. MUCH more money would need to be invested
in the modeling if we want to help prevent things such as this from happening.
So for now we must rely on imperfect human beings to do their best to decipher
the various data, which is extremely challenging and prone to human error. I
could go on about this forever, but let’s get back to trying to predict the
future…
Northwest NJ can look forward to only a bit of light snow
and flurries today that will accumulate to a dusting or so while Northeastern
and Central NJ will likely get some light to possibly occasionally moderate
snow that will accumulate to a dusting to 4 inches or so.
It will then get very cold on Wednesday as the storm departs
and pulls cold air down from the north.
The next chance of snow will be on Thursday night into
Friday morning when we could get 1-2 inches of accumulation.
Then the next storm to watch will occur next Sunday night
into Monday morning and this one could bring us a more significant
snowfall. We will need to keep a close
eye on this one.
Then it will get very cold again for the middle of next week
before the next potentially big Nor’easter develops for next Thursday. I am quite interested in this one. We shall see…
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It was a great forecast and you also kept us informed that it was moving east last night. I am glad we dodged the bullet. People criticize the weatherman but the storm was a blizzard that moved. No one can control that. We got lucky and I, for one, am glad....and happy how often you update us with current information!
ReplyDeleteThank you. I do the best I can.
ReplyDelete