First though, we will get a bit of snow tonight, but probably no more than a half of an inch anywhere, ending tomorrow morning.
Then Friday should be the calm before the storm...
Saturday we will likely have a major Nor'easter affecting our entire area.
The exact track that the storm takes will determine exactly how much snow each particular location ends up getting.
The best guess right now is that everyone in New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, Southern New York State, New York City, Long Island, and Connecticut would have at least a chance of 6-12 inches of snow.
Many people have asked me all day long why I can't be more specific and why I hedged so much today on my forecast. Here is why:
The European model, the Canadian Model, and the Japanese model all have a major snowstorm affecting our area. Meanwhile the British and American models don't. Yeah, that is right, there is still a chance we get nothing. Weather is not an exact science by any means. The only thing I can do is tell you what I THINK will happen based upon my analysis of the data. The last couple of storms did not work out exactly as I thought at all, so yes, I am hesitant. The storms have been very difficult to forecast this year and the tendency has been to have them do strange things at the very last minute. However, I will tell you what I THINK will happen.
I am leaning heavily towards a major snowstorm, very possibly nearing blizzard classification in our area and most likely reaching that status on Eastern Long Island and in Southeastern New England. I am expecting a widespread area of 6-12 inches of snow throughout our entire area, with the possibility of even higher amounts within this widespread band, but it is still too early to tell where that will set up.
On the other hand, you MUST be aware that the American and British models have basically nothing for us. Yeah, that is still possible, although I THINK those models are wrong. But there is still a chance they are right.
I ALWAYS lean towards the European model. It and its ensemble members are VERY impressive with this storm in our area. About half of the 50 ensemble members have much more than 6 inches of snow for our entire area while about a third have nearly nothing. So, yes anything is still possible. This storm could veer out to sea at the last moment, but I don't feel that is likely.
So, bottom line is that I am going with 6-12 inches at the moment, subject to change. Hang in there as soon as the models all get on the same page I can really nail this down.
Please join me early in the morning for the latest.
Moving beyond this storm, there will be another chance for snow on Monday. The strength of the Monday storm is largely dependent upon the strength of the Saturday storm. If the Saturday storm is as strong as I think it will be, then the Monday storm will likely be weaker. If the Saturday storm is weaker in our area, then the Monday storm will likely be stronger.
It will then get COLD after the Monday storm for the rest of next week, with another chance of a bit of snow or snow showers for next Friday, then a chance of another significant snowstorm next Monday.
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