Sunday, February 1, 2015 - Evening Weather Discussion

OK, I will take one more shot at this, as the snow is about to start…

Northwestern Monroe County, PA, Pike County, PA, Northern Sussex County, NJ, Northern Passaic County, NJ, Orange County, NY, 8-12 inches

  

Southeastern Monroe County, PA, Northern Northampton County, PA, Northern Warren County, NJ, Southern Sussex County, NJ, Northwestern Morris County, NJ, Southern Passaic County, NJ, Northern and Western Bergen County, NJ, Rockland County, NY, 5-10 inches

  

Southern Northampton County, PA, Southern Warren County, NJ, Northern Hunterdon County, NJ, Northern Somerset County, NJ, Southeastern Morris County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Southern Bergen County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, 3-8 inches

Southern Hunterdon County, NJ, Northern Mercer County NJ, Southern Somerset County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, New York City, 1-4 inches

  

These amounts are based on the fact that the snow will come down very heavy, at the rate of 2 inches per hour prior to changing over to sleet and freezing rain between 3 am and 7 am from Central NJ northward to Northwest NJ.

  

We will then have freezing rain with temperatures in the upper 20’s to low 30’s until between 11 am and noon when cold air will flood back into the area, dropping temperatures to the upper teens to low 20’s by early afternoon in many locations.  This will change the freezing rain back to snow and we could get another inch or two of snow before it finally comes to an end between 8 pm and 10 pm tomorrow night.

  

Then Tuesday will be very cold with lows dropping to the low to mid single digits and highs only in the upper teens to low 20’s.

Wednesday will be variably cloudy with a chance of some snow showers.

Thursday we will have to keep a close eye on two systems that may merge and threaten us with some snow.  It is still too early to tell if these systems will merge and how much of an impact they will have on our area if they do.

Then Saturday clouds will increase as a cold front starts to drop down from Canada. This will likely cause some light snow to develop on Saturday night and continue through the day on Sunday.

Then next Sunday a storm system dropping down from Canada is likely to ride the cold front all the way down to the Gulf Coast in the Southeastern United States. This storm is then likely to intensify and turn into a powerful storm system near the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and then it will likely turn northward and head toward Cape Hatteras, NC where it should be on Tuesday night. It will then either continue northward, or turn northeast from there and head up the coast.   

  

Depending on how close this storm comes to the coast on its way northward, it may threaten our area and areas of the Deep South with heavy snow next Monday through Wednesday.  

It is still much too early to tell whether this storm will actually form, and if it does, the track that it will take, so be sure to check back for updates. Honestly, this one could truly be very interesting as the European model (which accurately predicted the last blizzard for New England but missed on the exact placement) is printing out insane snowfall amounts of 20-30 inches for the South and North Carolina Coast with blizzard or near-blizzard conditions, and even has significant snowfall down to the Georgia Coast. Keep in mind I am not saying this will happen at all, in fact, it probably won’t, but it does show you the potential that exists for some crazy weather somewhere along the East Coast next week.  Let’s just see where this storm sets up. I think there will be a strong storm, just not sure on the placement just yet.

After that storm passes next Wednesday it should be nice Thursday through Saturday, then the next storm threat appears for the following Sunday.