Saturday, February 7, 2015

Saturday, February 7, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

This is a VERY difficult forecast…

To me, this storm is looking a lot like the storm of last Sunday night and Monday…

It looks as if the northern regions in our area will have some light snow on and off through tomorrow, while for the rest of us the light snow will start tomorrow afternoon or evening. It could even start as a bit of light rain as temperatures will likely be above freezing tomorrow when it starts. It will then change to light snow before changing back to light freezing rain on Sunday night south of about Rt. 80, with snow continuing north of about Rt. 80. The light freezing rain would then continue until late morning on Monday south of Rt. 80 and snow north of Rt. 80, before becoming heavier and changing back to snow north of about Rt. 78 and continuing through the night, ending on Tuesday morning.

There will be drastic difference in snowfall accumulations between areas that receive all snow and areas that mix. I have broken the totals down the best I am able at this point. The areas that receive all snow should get 5-10 inches, while the areas that get a mix but mainly snow should get 3-6 inches with up to a quarter inch of ice and areas that are a bit warmer should get 1-3 inches of accumulation and a tenth of an inch of ice. Detailed accumulation forecasts by county below:

5-10 inches in Northwestern Monroe County and Pike County in PA, Northern Sussex, Northern Passaic and Northwestern Bergen Counties in NJ, and Orange and Northwestern Rockland Counties in NY

3-6 inches with up to a quarter inch of ice in Southeastern Monroe and Northampton Counties PA, and Warren, Northern Hunterdon, Morris, Northern Somerset, Essex, Southern Passaic, and Southeastern Bergen Counties, and in Southeastern Rockland County in NY

1-3 inches with up to a tenth of an inch of ice in Southern Hunterdon, Southern Somerset, Union, Northern Middlesex, and Bergen Counties in NJ, and in New York City

Everything should come to an end on Tuesday morning, and then things will clear out with a nice Wednesday.

Thursday we will have a chance of some snow showers as a cold front and associated weak storm system pass through, bringing with it MUCH COLDER air for Friday.

Friday will be EXTREMELY COLD as the Polar Vortex will be making a visit. Lows are likely to be BELOW ZERO on Friday with highs struggling to reach 10.

Saturday a weak storm system will approach, bringing a chance of some snow showers next Saturday night and Sunday morning.

It should then be nice next Monday, but then we may very well be facing our next big snowstorm next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yes, our next big snowstorm will be next Tuesday and Wednesday. Schedule it into your daily planner now…

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Click here or on the map below to view the latest medium-range American model snowfall output map. This gives you an idea of how difficult a forecast this, subject to change for sure...



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