Sunday, February 8, 2015

Sunday, February 8, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

So, the big snow moved up to Northern New York State and New England where they will get more than a foot, but we are still in for some pretty nasty weather tonight and tomorrow, more on Thursday, again on Saturday night and again next Tuesday and Wednesday…

This storm has turned into a mixture for most of us, excluding possibly Northern Pike County PA, and Orange County, NY. Mixture situations area always incredibly difficult to forecast as they can change dramatically based on very small changes in temperatures. A half of a degree difference in temperature can make the difference between 6 inches of snow and 1 inch. Yes, that makes it tough. The easy call here is that everyone north of about Rt. 78 will be in for some awful weather late tonight through early Tuesday morning.

Here is my best guess at the moment, subject to change once again when the new data comes in early this afternoon:

Today will be cloudy with rain/snow/sleet developing from north to south across the area between 2 pm and 4 pm, changing to snow in many areas in the evening, then back to freezing rain and sleet between 11 pm and midnight, except in Pike County PA, and Orange County, NY where snow will continue with a high in the mid 30’s.

Early tomorrow there will be snow in Pike County PA and Orange County, NY, freezing rain and sleet elsewhere, changing to snow in Monroe County PA, Sussex, Passaic, Northern Morris, and Bergen Counties in NJ, and Rockland County NY by 7 am, and Northern Northampton, Northern Warren, Southern Morris, and Essex Counties NJ by 10 am, then southern Northampton, Southern Warren, Northern Hunterdon, Northern Somerset, Union, and Hudson Counties in NJ and New York City by 1 pm, then light snow continuing through the night with early morning pre-dawn highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, dropping to the mid to upper 20’s and holding steady the rest of the day.

Tuesday light snow will end between 5 am and 7 am, then clearing, low in the low to mid 20's, high in the low to mid 30's.

Total snow and ice accumulations:

4-8 inches with up to a tenth of an inch of ice in Northwestern Monroe and Pike Counties in PA, Northern Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties in NJ, and Orange and Northwestern Rockland Counties in NY.

2-5 inches with up to a quarter inch of ice in Northern Northampton and Southeastern Monroe Counties in PA, Northern Warren, Southern Sussex, Northern Morris, Southern Passaic, and Northwestern Bergen Counties in NJ, and Southeastern Rockland County in NY.

1-3 inches with up to a tenth inch of ice in Southern Northampton County PA, Southern Warren, Hunterdon, Northern Mercer, Somerset, Northern Middlesex, Union, Essex, and Hudson Counties in NJ, and New York City.

Wednesday should then be nice but quite cold with highs in the upper 20’s.

Thursday an Alberta Clipper (check key terms on the left of the page) will approach from the west, bringing a chance of snow with 1-3 inches of accumulation possible.

Friday and Saturday will then be quite cold with lows likely approaching zero and highs only in the low to mid teens on Friday and around 20 on Saturday.

Late in the day on Saturday another Alberta Clipper is likely to approach, again bringing a chance of snow on Saturday night, ending on Sunday morning. Sunday will then be cold with a high in the mid to upper teens.

Next Monday should be nice but cold with highs in the upper 20’s.

Next Tuesday and Wednesday an Alberta Clipper may combine with a storm system moving through the Southeastern United States to bring us a chance of a more significant snowstorm with highs in the mid to upper 20’s.

Next Thursday should then be nice but cold with highs in the low 20’s.

Next Friday and Saturday there will again be a chance of snow with highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

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