Right after the National Weather Service reduced the Winter Storm Watches for Northern New Jersey to Winter Weather Advisories (and I can't blame them one bit), the American medium-range model and the Canadian short-range model (which is an excellent model in the very short term), have just gone ballistic with this storm throughout our entire area and even outdid the European model slightly that I was hesitant to go with this morning.
So now I am going to change estimated snowfall amounts to 5-10 inches throughout our entire area, this includes Northeastern Virginia, Eastern Maryland, Delaware, Eastern Pennsylvania, ALL of New Jersey, Southeastern New York State, New York City, all of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Southeastern Massachusetts.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest medium-range American model snowfall map.
I believe we are seeing a bust in reverse fashion this time, just like the two that busted on us back in December with the massive storm that hit New England and Northern New York State, and in February with the blizzard. Both of those storms were projected by the models to develop over us and when they actually developed, they developed to our east, missing us. This time it appears that the bust is occurring over us. This can happen AFTER the storm actually develops if the model was projecting improperly and can be the result of some data being programmed improperly or the model simply mishandling the data.
Anyway, the cold air will move in rapidly this evening, causing the rain that is falling now to turn to snow between now and 1 am or so from northwest to southeast across the New York City Metropolitan area.
The snow will then be heavy at times through early morning, then it should become lighter and continue until tomorrow afternoon or early evening, accumulating to about 5-10 inches area-wide.
After this storm passes it will get very cold with temperatures dropping to the low to mid single digits on Friday morning and into the upper single digits on Saturday morning.
Things should then start to warm up but there will still be a chance of a snow shower on Saturday night and again on Monday.
Then next Tuesday through Thursday look nice and warmer with highs in the 40's.
Next Friday through the following Wednesday we may have several bouts of bad weather with chances for rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain.
Yes, fortunately it will warm up a bit next week, but it does not look as if we can call off the chances for bad weather through the next 2 weeks at least.
"Weather on the Edge" by Dr. Edge.
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