Two more significant snow and ice threats
this week, and more Sunday night into Monday threats for next week and the week
after…
First though…
This blog broke TWO MILLION all time page views yesterday.
I would have never imagined in my wildest dreams that this would have ever been possible.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG EVERY DAY!!!
Special thanks go out to Mike and Heather Michels, Jim Dunbar, Dave Conca, Joe Diblasi, and Dan Bertelli of Indian Hills High School in Oakland, NJ, who were instrumental in producing this blog. Without these people this blog would have never happened.
I would have never imagined in my wildest dreams that this would have ever been possible.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH TO ALL OF YOU WHO READ THIS BLOG EVERY DAY!!!
Special thanks go out to Mike and Heather Michels, Jim Dunbar, Dave Conca, Joe Diblasi, and Dan Bertelli of Indian Hills High School in Oakland, NJ, who were instrumental in producing this blog. Without these people this blog would have never happened.
Yesterday’s storm was supposed to be rain today
according to some of the big television forecasters a few days ago with a high
of 41 today. Meanwhile, I was saying it was going to be a significant snowstorm
for New York City, ending on Monday morning before it warmed up. The result was
Manhattan reporting 5.9 inches and Central Park reporting 4.8 inches of snow, NOT
rain. Click here to view snowfall totals for Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY,
New York City, and Long Island, where up to 7 inches of snow fell. Click here
to view snowfall totals for Eastern Pennsylvania and the rest of New Jersey.
These same forecasters were also saying that
the storm on Wednesday would be a pattern buster rain event with a high of 50
followed by a change to spring. Well, it will get warm on Wednesday, but as I
said, it will get warm AFTER we get some snow and ice, and then we will have a
chance at another significant snow event on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Sometimes I really wonder what these guys are doing.
Everything
remains on track for a significant snow/ice threat tomorrow night and again
Wednesday night into Thursday, with the possibility of more Sunday night into
Monday and again the following Sunday night into Monday.
To see the difficulty with the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday, below are the two different American model maps. Also, I am not allowed to post the other maps but the European, British, and Canadian models all fall between these two, but put us within the band of significant snow.
If the medium range American model is right we get NO snow on Wednesday night into Thursday, as the little bit of snow it shows is actually from Tuesday night, and if the short-range American model is right we would have a major snowstorm.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest short-range American model snowfall map for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning storm.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest medium-range American model snowfall map for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning storm.
It is a matter of figuring out where this band will set up. It may set up as far as a hundred miles further north or south, and as you see that would make a huge difference. It could also set up right over us. My guess is that this will set up just a bit south and east of us, with the heaviest band cutting across Central NJ again, but we will have to wait and see. Like last time though, if this sets up south and east, it may start as rain there, cutting accumulations back a bit.
Of course, if it sets up further south and east as the latest medium-range American model shows, it will be dry on Wednesday night and Thursday.
The moral to this story is that yes, we still have to more significant threats for snow and ice to deal with this week.
To see the difficulty with the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday, below are the two different American model maps. Also, I am not allowed to post the other maps but the European, British, and Canadian models all fall between these two, but put us within the band of significant snow.
If the medium range American model is right we get NO snow on Wednesday night into Thursday, as the little bit of snow it shows is actually from Tuesday night, and if the short-range American model is right we would have a major snowstorm.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest short-range American model snowfall map for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning storm.
Click here or on the map below to view the latest medium-range American model snowfall map for the Wednesday night into Thursday morning storm.
It is a matter of figuring out where this band will set up. It may set up as far as a hundred miles further north or south, and as you see that would make a huge difference. It could also set up right over us. My guess is that this will set up just a bit south and east of us, with the heaviest band cutting across Central NJ again, but we will have to wait and see. Like last time though, if this sets up south and east, it may start as rain there, cutting accumulations back a bit.
Of course, if it sets up further south and east as the latest medium-range American model shows, it will be dry on Wednesday night and Thursday.
The moral to this story is that yes, we still have to more significant threats for snow and ice to deal with this week.
Tomorrow
it looks as if the snow should start between about 3 and 4 pm, accumulating to
a dusting to 2 inches before changing to sleet and freezing rain between 8 pm and 11 pm, with up to a tenth to a quarter of
an inch of ice accumulation prior to changing to light rain and drizzle between
midnight and 4 am on Wednesday morning.
The light rain and drizzle will then likely turn back to snow by midnight on Thursday, ending between 2 pm and 5 pm on Thursday from west to east across our area. Total accumulations of 2-5 inches are possible. Then we will have a chance of more snow next Sunday night into Monday, then a chance of snow showers next Wednesday, then a chance of more snow the next Sunday night into Monday.
The light rain and drizzle will then likely turn back to snow by midnight on Thursday, ending between 2 pm and 5 pm on Thursday from west to east across our area. Total accumulations of 2-5 inches are possible. Then we will have a chance of more snow next Sunday night into Monday, then a chance of snow showers next Wednesday, then a chance of more snow the next Sunday night into Monday.
"Weather on the
Edge" by Dr. Edge.
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