Sunday, March 1, 2015 - Morning Weather Discussion

HAPPY MARCH 1ST!!!

We will have three distinct threats for significant snow this week…

The first snow threat is starting as I am typing this, with the first few flurries starting to fall in Northwest NJ. The snow will continue lightly during the day today, becoming moderate late this afternoon through early tomorrow morning, ending between about 4 am and 7 am from west to east across our area. The snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain as you head south into Central and Southern NJ, hence the lower accumulations in those areas. Total accumulations should be as follows:

Around 4 Inches – Lehigh, Northern Bucks, Northampton, Monroe, and Pike Counties in PA, Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, Morris, Northern Mercer, Somerset, Northern Middlesex, Essex, Passaic, Hudson, Bergen Counties in NJ, Orange, Rockland, and Westchester Counties in NY, Staten Island, NY, New York City, and all of Long Island

Around 3 Inches – Southern Bucks in PA, Southern Mercer, and Southern Middlesex Counties in NJ

Around 2 Inches – Philadelphia, PA, Northwestern Burlington, Northwestern Ocean, and Monmouth County, NJ

Dusting to 2 Inches – the rest of Southern NJ

Remember how just a few days ago some of the big weather guys on New York City television were saying it would be rainy with a high of 41 on Monday, while I was saying it would snow Sunday night into Monday and be over on Monday morning before warming up? I truly have no idea what they were or were not looking at.

Then on Tuesday snow will develop once again between 3 pm and 5 pm, accumulating 1-4 inches before changing to sleet and freezing rain by around 10 pm, with a tenth to a quarter inch of ice accumulation possible prior to changing to rain between about midnight and 2 am on Wednesday morning. The rain will then end late on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday night snow may then develop as yet another storm system approaches our area. This one is still very uncertain however as the main piece of energy responsible for producing this storm has yet to come on shore in British Columbia, Canada. Once this storm comes inland from the Pacific Ocean and the models have better information to work with, the models will likely change somewhat.

After coming inland in British Columbia, Canada, this storm will track straight south down the West Coast, reaching the Baja of California in Mexico, coming inland there and then tracking eastward, reaching the Southeastern United States on Wednesday. This storm will then develop somewhat and ride along the front that will move through our area on Wednesday afternoon. The track and intensity of this storm will determine whether we get any snow at all, and how much we get. Right now it appears that a band of 6-12 inches or more of snow will develop along the track of the storm, but it is not yet possible to determine where exactly this will set up. Be sure to check back for updates.

Moving beyond the Wednesday night into Thursday morning storm threat, it will be nice but cold on Friday, and then it will warm up a bit for next weekend with highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Next Monday into Tuesday morning one storm will approach from the southeast while another storm drops down from Canada. If these two storms merge we would likely have snow next Monday into Tuesday morning. However, if these two storms fail to merge we would likely be left dry.

Then next Wednesday through Friday should be nice with highs mainly in the upper 30’s.

Next Saturday we will likely have a chance of rain or snow as a storm system approaches from the Southeastern United States with highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

"Weather on the Edge" by Dr. Edge.

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