Thursday, February 4, 2016 - Evening Weather Discussion

Surprise snowstorm it is...

Well, yep, I mentioned this possibility last night and it is going to happen. In less than 12 hours the temperatures will drop from the mid to upper 40's to freezing. At the same time a low pressure area is developing along the coast of the Southeastern United States and this storm will move due north up the coast. The precipitation may start as rain, but will quickly change to snow.

My best guess for snowfall amounts is as follows:

dusting to 1-2 inches for Northeastern and East Central Pennsylvania

1-3 inches for the Western half of Sussex County and extreme Western Warren County in NJ and Western Orange County in New York State

2-6 inches for the rest of Northern and Central NJ and Southeastern NY State, including NYC

4-8 inches for East Central NJ and Long Island

That is my best guess right now.  If this storm trends further west, then all of the estimates I just gave will move west with it. If it moves east, then all of the estimates would shift east. I would give it about a 60% chance of moving further west.

The start time should be around midnight to 1 am in most locations, but it could start as rain and then change over between 2 am and 3 am in eastern sections.

The snow will end in the late morning or early afternoon.

Then we will have to watch as a monster Nor'easter develops off the Carolina coast on Sunday and then tracks northeastward.  This storm will likely stay far enough off shore to keep us safe through the day on Monday.

Monday night a strong disturbance will then approach the Middle Atlantic Coast from the west. This will likely cause a strong Nor'easter to develop off the New Jersey Coast on Tuesday. This has the potential to bring the Allentown and New York City Metropolitan areas a significant snowfall on Tuesday. We will need to keep a close eye on this one.

Then we will have a chance of some snow showers next Friday night as another disturbance passes by.

Then we will have to watch for the potential of another Nor'easter to form next Monday and Tuesday that could bring us another significant snowfall.

Please check back for continuous updates.

“Weather on the Edge", by Dr. Edge

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