Tuesday, March 20, 2018 - Morning Weather Discussion

BIG Questions with the storm track in our area…

Two separate strong disturbances are approaching our area and overnight one of these disturbances triggered some tornadoes in Alabama, including one that hit Jacksonville State University in Jacksonville, Alabama. Click here to read the story and watch the video.

Right now, the data is all over the place with this storm. Just to give you an idea, the short-range American model that came out last night had up to 30 inches of snow in parts of Northwestern NJ and Southeastern NY State and now it has NOTHING in the same locations just 6 hours later. So, anything is possible with this storm. As has been said many times before, with Nor’easters in our area, how the storm develops and the exact track that it takes will determine snowfall amounts. A slight difference in the development and track of this storm makes the difference between potentially 2 feet of snow and nothing.

These two disturbances will phase off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula Wednesday morning, then move northeastward and out to sea Wednesday night. This will bring us a chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet developing this afternoon in East Central PA and Central NJ, changing to snow, and a chance of snow developing elsewhere tonight. Accumulations should be quite light today and tonight. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Tomorrow there will be a chance of snow, possibly heavy at times in parts of our area, especially in Central NJ. It will also become windy with gusts of up to 40 mph possible inland and 50 mph along the coast. Some coastal flooding is possible. The snow will end at night. Highs will be in the low to mid 30’s.

Total possible accumulations, subject to change later today:

Coating to 5 inches possible – Northeastern PA from northwest to southeast

4-8 inches possible – East Central PA, Northwestern NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and Eastern Long Island

6-12 inches possible – Northeastern NJ, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, NYC, Central and Western Long Island, Fairfield County, CT

8-16 inches possible – Central NJ

Thursday the snow will end very early in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Friday and Saturday then look nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s Friday and the upper 30’s to mid 40’s Saturday.

Sunday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers as a disturbance passes south of our area. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.

Monday through next Thursday then look nice, but with increasing cloudiness late in the day next Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s Monday, the mid 40’s to mid 50’s next Tuesday, the mid to upper 40’s next Wednesday, and the mid 40’s to low 50’s next Thursday.

Next Friday through Sunday then look variably cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs will be in the 50’s next Friday, the upper 40’s to mid 50’s next Saturday, the mid 40’s to low 50’s next Sunday, and the 40’s next Monday.

Have a fantastic day and please join me later today for the latest information…

Download the Edgeweather weather app from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store, search for, "Edgeweather".

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org

I am Principal of Sussex County Charter School for Technology. Click here to view the school website.

Click here for the Popcorn in Space article that appeared on the front page of the NJ Herald!

Click here for the Groundhog Day article that appeared on the front page of the NJ Herald!

We have limited seats available in grade 6 for the current school year and are now accepting applications for next school year for grades 6-8. Click here to apply today...