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This will be strictly a weather discussion this morning. For the detailed forecast, please look at my prior post titled, “Look at the Next 2 Weeks”.
It will be nice through Monday, with just a chance of some flurries this weekend.
Tuesday things are likely to start getting interesting as a disturbance will be passing through the Great Lakes, reaching the Eastern Great Lakes area Tuesday morning. A cold front will be extending southward from this disturbance to the Gulf Coast near New Orleans, Louisiana. A disturbance will start to develop along this cold front Tuesday morning, somewhere between New Orleans and the Southern Appalachians of Tennessee and North Carolina. The disturbance over the Eastern Great Lakes will gradually transfer its energy to the developing disturbance in the Southern Appalachians as it moves northeastward, reaching the Richmond, Virginia area Tuesday night, to a point somewhere near NJ or off the NJ Coast Tuesday night, to Eastern Massachusetts Wednesday morning, and to Maine Wednesday afternoon. As the disturbance moves northeastward, it will pull the cold front with it, with very cold air moving in behind the storm.
With the track outlined above, there is a great deal of uncertainty as to where the center of the storm will be Tuesday night as it passes our area. It could be centered directly over us, or it could be centered well out to sea. This makes a big difference in two different ways, one is that the storm will be pulling the cold front eastward with it, so any track over New Jersey would allow warm air to remain in place in our area, or could even pull warm air in off the ocean, while any track further off the coast would allow for colder air to move into our area faster. The second way is that a track far off the coast would bring less precipitation to our area, while a track closer to the coast would provide more moisture to our area. So, this is a difficult and tricky forecast that will be based off what I see to be the most likely track at this time.
Tuesday, clouds will increase with a chance of snow developing in the afternoon and early evening in East Central and Northeastern PA, in the evening in Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, and rain, changing to snow at night in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island as the disturbance strengthens and passes through our area.
Wednesday the snow will end early in the morning, followed by clearing. Significant accumulations of snow are likely in Northeastern PA, possible in Northern NJ (especially Northwestern NJ), Southeastern NY State (especially Orange and Putnam Counties), and in Fairfield County, CT (especially northern parts), with lighter snowfall accumulations likely in Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island. The high temperatures will occur early in the morning, with highs ranging from the 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the low to mid 40’s in East Central NJ, NYC, and on Long Island, dropping sharply to from the single digits to low teens in Northeastern PA to the 20’s on Long Island by afternoon.
Thursday through Tuesday will then be nice, but it will be very cold Thursday through Saturday, with lows as cold as the single digits below zero in Northeastern PA Thursday through Saturday, gradually rising Sunday through Tuesday.
Next Wednesday into Thursday morning there will be a chance of rain or snow as a disturbance passes through our area.
Next Friday is then looking nice.
Again, for the detailed forecast, please look at my prior post titled, “Look at the Next 2 Weeks”.
Have a fantastic day and please join me this afternoon for the latest on the potential snow in our area Tuesday night.
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