Storm Reflection and Some Snowfall Totals

The bottom line is that this storm ended up a bust for me in many locations.

Initially a week to five days ago I thought it would move a bit further south because we already had two big storms miss us to the south this winter, the big one that brought Virginia up to two feet of snow back in December and the one only a week ago that brought a foot to the Washington D.C. area. So, yes, I thought this one would likely track further south than it did.

Once I was finally able to determine that the track of the storm would pass directly through our area I knew it would be a mixture for a large part of our area, and did a fairly decent job of highlighting the changeover areas.

Then the next problem was estimating snowfall amounts. It looks as if most areas received only about half of what I predicted. There was no one single model that got this storm right. Some were too low, some were too high. In hindsight, in order to get this one right I would have used a 5:1 snow ratio instead of a 10:1 ratio as the snow was extremely wet in many locations, almost a rainy type snow. This killed the snow ratios. I knew approximately when it would change over, I knew how much precipitation there would be, but the unknown was the ratio that would be best to use.

The next problem was the ice forecast. Initially it appeared as if the storm would track just a touch further south and this would have meant a big ice storm as the cold air would have been locked into our area. Then the storm kept trending northward up till the last minute. This allowed warmer air to surge further north than I thought it would. The high only reached 33 at my location in Allamuchy, Warren County, but that was just warm enough to prevent a major icing event.

I have analyzed everything with this storm and will continue to do so throughout the day, and hope to do better with my next forecast.

Thank you to all of you who read this blog every day.  I truly appreciate it. I am sorry to those of you who wanted or prepared for snow, I know this is another disappointment. And for those of you who simply didn't want to deal with this one, congratulations to you, another win in many places.

Click here for some snow totals from East Central and Northeastern PA, and Northwestern NJ. I am still waiting for the totals from Northeastern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT.

More a bit later with the Look at the Next 2 Weeks and Morning Weather Discussion.

Send weather related photos or videos to edgeweather2@gmail.com

Click here for the Edge Weather app in the Apple App Store. 

Click here for the Edge Weather app in the Google Play Store.

Or search the Apple App Store or Google Play Store for Edgeweather.

Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on Twitter or on Facebook at TheEdgeWeather.

Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org and theedgeweather.org