The Dilemma This Morning...

I love when you wake up to models like this for this weekend (keep in mind they all include snow for the Thursday night storm, which is actually turning into a real snowstorm for some of us). More about that later.

Click on the images to enlarge.

Below is the British model courtesy f5wx.com. The British model is an extremely good model and is number 2 in terms of overall accuracy.

Below is the new American model which is in test phase (hoping to replace current American with it later this year). Image courtesy f5wx.com. The test version of the American model is currently number 3 in terms of accuracy.

Below is the current version of the American model which is currently in 4th place in terms of accuracy behind the test version of the American model. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.

Below is the German model for which I don't have accuracy scores as it has been newly released publicly. Image courtesy Tropicaltidbits.com

AND THEN THERE IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL, WHICH IS NUMBER 1 IN TERMS OF OVERALL ACCURACY ON AVERAGE.   THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS THE STORM SO FAR NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA THAT WE GET BASICALLY NO SNOW, EXCEPT FOR SOME IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND ORANGE COUNTY, NY!!!  Unfortunately, the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting does not permit their maps to be posted, but I can tell you that it has the band of snow cutting across Northern Ohio, far Northwestern PA, Northwestern NY State, and Northern Vermont, with snowfall that is just insane, with amounts up to 3-4 FEET or so. 

So, I am sure you want to know what I think will happen for us. All I can tell you is that it is extremely difficult to go against the European model. It is not impossible that the European model is wrong and it wouldn't be the first time, but it is HIGHLY unlikely to be wrong.

I am going to start working on the morning forecast now. Talk to you a bit later...

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