Updated Snowfall Amounts for Today

My snowfall estimates from last evening are still looking pretty good this morning as I have no idea what the short-range American model was doing last night. Sometimes that model does fantastically well as it did back in November in our area, and other times it is in fantasy land. Last night it was apparently in fantasy land again and in some places where it had nearly a foot last night it now is showing 3 inches, and in other areas where it was showing 6 inches it now shows 1, and so on. I have no idea how a model can change so much on one run but this is exactly why the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting does not permit their images being displayed, because they know they have something that works. It is not perfect, but it is rare that it changes that much in one model run this close to a storm.

Anyway, snowfall amounts should end up like this:

Trace to a coating possible:  Southeastern NY State, Fairfield County, CT, and Eastern Long Island

Coating to an inch possible:  Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, NYC, and Western Long Island

Half an inch to an inch possible:  East Central PA

Half an inch to two and a half inches possible:  Central NJ from north to south

2-6 inches possible:  South Jersey

More a bit later with the Look at the Next 2 Weeks and Morning Weather Discussion…

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