Tomorrow clouds will increase in the afternoon with a some light snow developing at night as a weak disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.
Friday, any light snow will end in the morning, followed by clearing. Snowfall accumulations should range from a trace to an inch or two throughout our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.
Things will then start getting interesting as a cold front will pass through our area Friday afternoon and evening. This front will then stall and a storm that is currently going inland on the West Coast will reach Oklahoma Friday night. The storm will then start to draw copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and head eastward along the stalled cold front, reaching Arkansas by Saturday afternoon, Tennessee Saturday night, Northern Virginia by Sunday morning, and Southern NJ by midday Sunday. There will be very warm and moist air to the south of the track of this storm, and very cold air to the north of the storm.
A heavy band of snow will develop from Southern Ohio, through most of Pennsylvania, New York, Northern NJ, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Within this band of heavy snow, a band of extremely heavy snow will fall from Central Pennsylvania through Central NY State, Northwestern Massachusetts, Southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Within this band snowfall accumulations of 2-3 feet and possibly as high as 4 feet are possible, with the highest amounts likely in East Central NY State, Northwestern Massachusetts, Southern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. In fact, there is the potential for up to 5 feet in Southeastern Maine.
Just to the southeast of this area of extremely heavy snow, the snow will be mixed with ice, causing very significant icing from the Panhandles of West Virginia and Maryland through Southeastern and East Central PA and parts of Northeastern PA, Central and Northern NJ, Southeastern NY state, NYC, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Southeastern Massachusetts.
South of the band of ice, a band of heavy rain will fall, with total rainfall amounts of 1.5-3.5 inches from Northeastern Virginian, through Maryland, Delaware and Southern NJ.
In addition, it will be quite windy with gusts of up to 50 mph possible inland and up to 70 mph possible on Long island.
So, yeah, this storm is going to be a doozy.
ALL OF THIS IS CONTINGENT UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THOSE AREAS AND ANY TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WOULD MOVE THE RAIN FURTHER NORTHWEST.
So, in our area, clouds will increase Saturday morning with snow developing in the late afternoon and evening from west to east across our area. The snow will likely come down hard once it starts and you won’t want to be on the roads when it hits, much as what happened back in November. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s.
Early Sunday morning the snow will likely change to freezing rain and sleet in East Central and Southeastern portions of Northeastern PA, Northern NJ (including northern portions of Central NJ), Southeastern NY State, NYC, possibly Western Long Island, and in Fairfield County, CT, with snow continuing in Northern Northeast PA, and possibly in Northern Orange County, NY. Temperatures may never get above freezing throughout the entire storm in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State (except possibly far southeastern Westchester County), and Northern Fairfield County, CT. This will mean the potential of very severe icing in these locations. Temperatures may rise above freezing in parts of Central NJ, maybe, and will likely rise well above freezing near the NJ coast and on Long Island, but especially along the NJ Coast.
The precipitation will end in the afternoon and evening from west to east across our area. Highs Sunday will be in the low to mid 20’s in Northeastern PA, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, the 20’s in Northern NJ, the mid 20’s to low 30’s in East Central PA, the low 30’s in NYC, and the mid 30’s to low 40’s in Central NJ and on Long Island (from northwest to southeast).
Total possible snowfall accumulations based on the latest projected track:
1-5 inches: Central NJ from southeast to northwest
2-6 inches: Long Island from southeast to northwest
3-7 inches: New York City
5-11 inches: Northern NJ from southeast to northwest
7-11 inches: East Central PA, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY, and Fairfield County, CT
9-14 inches: Orange and Putnam Counties in NY
10-20 inches: Schuylkill, Carbon, Monroe and Pike Counties in PA
15-25 inches with localized amounts to 35 inches: Wayne, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming, Susquehanna and counties west of there
Total possible ice accumulations:
Half inch to one inch: East Central and southeastern portions of Northeastern PA, Central NJ, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and Long Island
One inch to two inches: Southeastern PA, Northern NJ, Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY State, New York City, and Fairfield County, CT
There could also be flooding in areas of Central NJ and Long Island that receive all or mostly rain, especially near the Coast.
Monday will then be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow squall, snow shower, or flurry as some Lake Effect moisture may reach our area. It will be extremely cold with lows dropping to the single digits below zero to the mid single digits above zero, and highs in the mid single digits to mid teens.
Tuesday will then be nice, but extremely cold again in the morning, with lows again in the single digits below zero to the mid single digits above zero and highs in the 20’s.
Next Wednesday clouds will increase in the afternoon as a storm system approaches from the Southeastern United States. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Thursday and Friday there will be a chance of rain as a storm system passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Saturday through Monday are then looking unsettled with a chance of snow showers each day as a couple of disturbances pass through our area. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s next Saturday, and the mid 20’s to low 30’s next Sunday and Monday.
Next Tuesday will then be nice with highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s.
Have a wonderful evening and please join me in the morning for the latest information…
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