Two disturbances are approaching our area. One from the west in the Northern Jet Stream and one from the Southeastern United States in the Southern Jet Stream. These two disturbances will merge just off the NJ Coast tomorrow night, intensifying and becoming a Nor’easter Monday. This will cause snow to start in our area tomorrow morning, except along the NJ Coast where it will start as rain. The precipitation will then gradually change to sleet, freezing rain, and rain in our area, then will turn back to snow late at night and into Monday morning as the Nor’easter rapidly intensifies, pulling colder air back into our area from the north.
Clouds will increase tonight with snow developing tomorrow morning and early afternoon from west to east, except rain developing along the NJ Coast. The snow will then change to rain in East Central PA, Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, Southern Westchester County, CT, and on Long Island in the late morning and early afternoon, and to freezing rain and sleet in Northeastern PA, Northwestern, NJ, and parts of Southeastern NY State and Southern Fairfield County, CT, where significant icing could occur. It will become windy, with gusts of up to 45 mph possible, especially at night, except for up to 50 mph possible on Eastern Long Island. Highs will range from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the upper 40’s to mid 50’s in East Central NJ.
The rain will then change back to snow very early in the morning in East Central and Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, and Orange and Rockland Counties in NY State, by about mid-morning in West Central and Northeastern NJ and in Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY, by about midday in East Central NJ and NYC, by mid-afternoon in Fairfield County, CT, and on Long Island in the evening. It will be windy on Long Island and in Fairfield County, CT, with gusts of up to 40 mph possible. Highs will be in the morning and will range from the upper 20’s to low 30’s in Northeastern PA to the 40’s in East Central NJ, dropping a bit through the day.
The snow will then end in the early morning hours on Tuesday, before dawn, except on Long Island, where it should end later in the morning. Highs will be in the 30’s.
Total Possible Accumulations:
1-3 inches: East Central NJ and Long Island
2-4 inches: West Central NJ and NYC
4-8 inches: East Central PA, Northeastern NJ, Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam Counties in NY State and Fairfield County, CT
5-10 inches: southern portions of Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ except far Northwest sections
6-12 inches: far Northern Northeast PA, far Northwestern NJ, Orange County, NY
Below is the snowfall map from the latest run of the European model ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions) that just came out. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the snowfall map from the most recent run of the European model. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the freezing rain map from the latest run of the European model. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the sleet map from the European model that just came out. Image courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Wednesday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow shower. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.
Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the 30’s to low 40’s.
Friday will be variably cloudy with a chance of a snow shower as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.
Next Saturday, December 6th, and next Sunday, December 7th, are then looking nice with highs in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s next Saturday and the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Sunday.
Next Monday, December 8th, and next Tuesday, December 9th, there will be a chance of rain as a disturbance passes through our area. There is a chance that the rain could change to snow in some places next Tuesday. Highs will be in the 40’s to low 50’s next Monday and the 40’s to low 50’s next Tuesday.
Next Wednesday, December 10th, there will be a chance of rain or snow ending in the morning, followed by clearing. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.
Next Thursday, December 11th, there will be a chance of a rain or snow shower. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.
Next Friday, December 12th, will be variably cloudy with highs in the 40’s.
Have a wonderful evening!
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