Saturday, December 14, 2019

Saturday, December 14, 2019 - Evening Weather Discussion

Windy tomorrow and then snow and ice developing Monday afternoon and evening and continuing into Tuesday in many places…

The showers will end this evening and then there will be a chance of snow showers in Northeastern PA tonight into tomorrow morning, with a chance of snow flurries elsewhere tomorrow. It will be windy tomorrow with gusts of up to 45 mph possible. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Monday, clouds will increase in the morning, with snow developing in East Central PA between about 11 am and 1 pm, in Central NJ between about noon and 2 pm, in Northeastern PA and Northern NJ between about 1 pm and 3 pm, in NYC around 3 pm, on Western Long Island between about 3 and 4 pm, and in Southeastern NY State, Eastern Long Island, and Fairfield County, CT, between about 4 pm and 6 pm. The snow will then change to rain along the NJ Coast between about 4 pm and 6 pm, and to freezing rain in East Central PA and inland Central NJ, then to freezing rain in NYC and on Western Long Island between about 6 pm and 8 pm, and to rain on Eastern Long Island, to freezing rain in Northeastern PA and Northern NJ between about 6 pm and 10 pm (except far Northeastern Northeast PA), in Rockland and Westchester Counties in NY and in Fairfield County, CT between about 8 pm and midnight, in Orange and Putnam Counites in NY State between about midnight and 4 am on Tuesday morning, and finally in far Northern Northeast PA between about 6 am and 10 am.  The freezing rain will then start to change to rain in East Central NJ between about 10 pm and 1 am Tuesday morning, between about midnight and 2 am in NYC and on Long Island, between about 3 am and 5 am in West Central NJ, between about 6 am and 10 am in East Central PA and Northeastern NY, between about 10 and 2 pm in Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and in Fairfield County, CT, although some parts of Northeastern PA, Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT, may never get above freezing before the precipitation ends in the late afternoon and evening.

Highs Monday will be in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and in the 30’s to low 40’s Tuesday.

Total possible snowfall accumulations:

Trace to an inch:  Coastal NJ

Half an inch to an inch and a half:  Central NJ and Long Island

One to Two inches:  New York City

One to Three inches:  East Central PA, Northern NJ, Westchester County, NY

Two to Three inches:  Rockland County, NY

Two to Four Inches:  Northeastern PA, Orange and Putnam Counties in NY, and Fairfield County, CT

Total possible ice accumulations:

Trace to a quarter of an inch:  Inland East Central NJ, Northeast NJ (along the Hudson River) NYC, and Western Long Island

Quarter to a half of an inch:  far Northern Northeast PA, Northeast NJ (away from the Hudson River), Southern Westchester County, NY, and far Southwestern Fairfield County, CT

Half inch to three quarters of an inch possible:  Southern portions of Northeastern PA, East Central PA, West Central and Northwestern NJ, Southeastern NY State (excluding Southern Westchester County), and Fairfield County, CT (excluding far Southwestern sections)

Below is the latest snowfall map from the European ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions), courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. This is what my snowfall forecast above is based upon.


Below is the latest snowfall map from the main European model, courtesy WeatherBell analytics.


And below is the latest freezing rain map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.


Wednesday will be variably cloudy with a chance of snow flurries, snow showers, and possibly a snow squall as some Lake Effect moisture may reach our area. Highs will be in the mid 20’s to mid 30’s.

Thursday and next Friday will then be nice with highs in the mid 20’s to low 30’s Thursday and the upper 20’s to mid 30’s Friday.

Next Saturday, December 21st, clouds will increase in the morning with a chance of rain or snow showers in the afternoon or evening as a disturbance passes through our area. Highs will be in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s.

Next Sunday, December 22nd, through next Friday, December 27th, are then looking nice with highs in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s next Sunday, the upper 30’s to mid 40’s next Monday through Christmas Day, the mid 30’s to low 40’s next Thursday, and the 30’s next Friday.

Have a wonderful evening!

If you are thinking about buying or selling a home, I am a licensed real estate broker in NJ and I would be happy to assist you. Please contact me at edgeweather2@gmail.com

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