European Model is Downright Scary in Many Places with Wind Gusts Possibly Stronger Than With Superstorm Sandy and Very Heavy Flooding Rain in Many Places...

Well, here we are.... I have been talking about this storm since it came off the African Coast I don't even know how many days ago now. So, what we are facing is a storm that is strengthening as it is approaching the South Carolina Coast right now, reaching Hurricane Strength again. 

Click here for the latest from the National Hurricane Center. 

Locally here, the concern is quite great this evening as this storm is doing a lot of the same things that Superstorm Sandy did, it is merging with an approaching strong disturbance and cold front. This is causing the storm to maintain strength as it moves up the coast, inland, rather than weakening as most hurricanes do as they approach our area, due to the colder water or interaction with the land. The only good news I have is that this storm will be moving much, much, faster than Superstorm Sandy, with only about 5-6 hours with the strong wind and heavy rain. Unfortunately though, we will be facing wind gusts that have the potential to exceed those of Superstorm Sandy in areas east of where the center of circulation passes, with gusts of over 90 mph possible along the NJ Coast, and possibly up to 100 mph along the coast of the South Shore of Western Long Island. These types of winds, if they were to actually occur, which obviously is difficult to believe, but it is what the European model is currently showing, would exceed the maximum wind gusts experienced with Superstorm Sandy. 

The timing of concern would be tomorrow, late morning through early evening in most of our area...

Click here to view the maximum wind gusts in our area from Superstorm Sandy as a comparison.

Now, as for the rain to the west of where the center of circulation passes, rainfall amounts could reach 3-6 inches in much of Eastern PA, Northwestern NJ, and Orange County, NY, where flooding will be likely, and the flooding could very well be severe in many places. 

Now, as for power outages, I would expect them to be widespread, with power outages possibly lasting for days in parts of Southeastern PA, Southern, Central, and Northeastern NJ, NYC, Westchester and Putnam Counties in, NY, on Western and Central Long Island, and in Fairfield County, CT. With the likelihood of shorter duration and sporadic power outages possible in the rest of our area. 

This is a lot to think about and hopefully this is wrong, but this is based on the best data available right now. Things can certainly change by morning, but as of right now, I am quite concerned...

More early tomorrow morning...

Below is the latest total precipitation map from the operational run of the European model, courtesy Weather Bell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.

And below is the latest run of the European Model Ensemble Mean total precipitation map, courtesy Weather Bell Analytics. Click on the map to enlarge.

Below is the latest maximum wind gust map from the operational run of the European model, courtesy Weather Bell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.

Click below to view the latest run of the European Model Ensemble mean maximum wind gust map, courtesy Weather Bell Analytics. Click on the map to enlarge.

Below is the latest sustained wind map from the operational run of the European model, as the center of Isaias passes through our area tomorrow afternoon. Courtesy Weather Bell Analytics. Notice the eye and how the maximum winds are to the east of the eye and now you can also see how the maximum rain is west of the track of the eye, as well. Click on the image to enlarge.

Stay Healthy...

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