Latest Mesoscale Discussion for This Evening - Tornadoes Possible

   

   Mesoscale Discussion 1381

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0545 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...Western New England and Northern Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 410...

   Valid 022245Z - 030045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 410 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage has remained isolated across WW 410. This

   trend is expected to continue this evening. Where storms can mature,

   such as near the NY/MA/CT border, damaging wind gusts and a tornado

   or two will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage within WW 410 has remained quite

   isolated. With the strongest forcing for ascent north of the

   Canadian border, this is not likely to change significantly this

   evening. A cluster of storms has developed within the last hour and

   a half near the NY/MA/CT border vicinity. One of those storms in

   northwestern CT has exhibited persistent mid-level rotation and a

   brief TDS around 6 PM EDT. These storms exist within a baroclinic

   zone where effective SRH is maximized. While poor low-level lapse

   rates may hinder stronger low-level rotation, any mature supercell

   that enters this favorable environment would still be capable of

   producing a tornado. Farther north, cumulus have continued to slowly

   deepen in the western Adirondacks. There is remaining favorable

   environment within far northeaster NY near the international border.

   While buoyancy is somewhat more limited that far north, low-level

   winds remain slightly backed. Overall, storm coverage is expected to

   remain isolated with potential for damaging wind gusts and a tornado

   or two where storms can develop and mature. The threat is expected

   to diminish by 9-10 PM EDT.

   ..Wendt.. 08/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43347530 43787538 44527545 44947493 45017315 44877260

               43987257 42617241 41747239 41067342 40827427 40697497

               40837542 41037551 41827544 43347530 

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