Latest Mesoscale Discussion - Tornadoes Possible in East Central and Northeastern PA and Northern NJ

   

   Mesoscale Discussion 1376

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0553 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...northern New

   Jersey...southern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021053Z - 021330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally severe wind gusts are possible over northeast

   Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey this morning. A brief tornado

   is possible if the storm cluster continues to intensify.

   DISCUSSION...Storms over eastern PA have gradually intensified over

   the past hour, acquiring broad rotation as they translate

   east/northeast along the lifting warm front. Surface analysis shows

   72 to 74 F dewpoints which is contributing to around 1000 J/kg

   SBCAPE.

   Area VWPs and objective analysis show 0-1 SRH between 100-150 m2/s2,

   which is typically sufficient for a low-end tornado risk.

   Damaging wind gusts appear possible with this isolated storm

   cluster. Should the system continue to get better organized, further

   tightening of the circulation may occur, with a brief tornado

   possible. However, this would appear most likely later today when

   heating occurs and boundary layer lapse rates become more favorable.

   ..Jewell/Grams.. 08/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

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