Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
Areas affected...NJ...DE...MD...Northern VA...WV
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 251910Z - 252045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to move into the region with in
the next hour or two, with an attendant threat for damaging wind
gusts across a large area from WV into NJ.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
strength upstream of the region over the mid/upper OH Valley.
Current storm motion estimates bring these storms to the edge of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449 around 2000/2030Z. Air mass from the
central Appalachians into the northern Mid-Atlantic has warmed in
the upper 80s/low 90s, removing all convective inhibition and
resulting in moderate buoyancy. Most recent mesoanalysis estimates
MLCAPE is near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear is around 25-30 kt
over much of this area. Additionally, robust diurnal heating has
resulted in steep low-level lapse rates. These steep low-level lapse
rates coupled with modest mid-level moisture results in an
environment favorable for strong, water-loaded downbursts.
As a result, the expectation is for the ongoing storms to move into
the region within the next hour or two, with an attendant threat for
damaging wind gusts across a large area from WV into NJ.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 08/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38558270 39467898 40237602 41027447 38927426 37448166
38558270
Stay Healthy...
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