Severe Storms with Some Flooding Have Developed in Parts of Southeastern PA, Central NJ, and on Central Long Island

Strong thunderstorms have developed in Southeastern PA, Central NJ, and on Central Long Island, bringing some flooding to parts of those areas.

Below is the mososcale discussion from the National Weather Service Storm Predication Center...

Mesoscale Discussion 1471

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Virginia northeastward through New
   Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121715Z - 121915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradually deepening convection will pose a risk of
   damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.  The isolated nature of
   the threat precludes a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Strong buoyancy has developed along and south of a weak
   surface boundary over southern Pennsylvania/New York, where
   mid/upper 70s F surface dewpoints was contributing to 3000+ J/kg
   MUCAPE.  This unstable, uncapped airmass has supported isolated to
   scattered convective development, although deep layer shear is quite
   weak.  The environment should support occasional, 'pulse-type'
   storms that pose a brief damaging-wind threat but migrate/propagate
   erratically in and near the discussion area through the afternoon. 
   The threat should be too isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, and
   the threat should persist through the early evening until nocturnal
   boundary layer stabilization commences.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 08/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...
   GSP...

   LAT...LON   37108104 37968012 39527797 40177628 40587480 40457400
               39937396 39367449 38677605 37847718 36757863 36068003
               35868125 36238174 37108104 

Stay Healthy...

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