Quick Morning Update with European and Short-Range American Models

 

It appears as if many of the forecasts have likely been underdoing the snow for today. The snow will come down very hard once it starts. Temperatures may rise above freezing by several degrees even in many places before the snow starts, but once it starts the temperatures will fall quickly to near freezing and the snow will start to accumulate quickly as the snow rapidly becomes heavy. This will lead to difficult travel in Eastern PA, Northern NJ, Southeastern NY State, and Fairfield County, CT by early afternoon.

The snow will start from around 9 am in parts of Eastern PA, to around 1 pm in Fairfield County, CT. 

Travel may become very difficult by noon in Eastern PA and by noon to 1 pm in Northern NJ and Southeastern NY State, from west to east. 

I am concerned that people may not be properly prepared for the dangerous travel conditions early this afternoon due to the low snow amounts that had been forecast prior to this morning by many weather outlets.

Estimated snow start times:

9-10:30 am:  Eastern PA

10:30-11:30 am:  Northwestern and West Central NJ

11 am-noon:  Northeastern NJ, NYC, Southeastern NY State

Around noon:  Fairfield County, CT

Estimated snow end times:

3-4:30 pm:  Eastern PA

4:30-5:30 pm:  Northwestern NJ and Orange County, NY

5-6:30 pm:  Northeastern NJ, NYC, and Southeastern NY State

6:30-7:30 pm:  Fairfield County, CT

Total possible snowfall accumulation:

Trace to an inch:  Inland East Central NJ and far Western Long Island

Trace to an inch or two:  West Central NJ, NYC, coastal Fairfield County, CT

1-3 inches:  Southern Hunterdon and Central and Southern Somerset Counties and Northeastern NJ, Westchester and Putnam Counties in NY State and Fairfield County, CT

2-4 inches:  Far Western Bergen County, NJ, Orange and Rockland Counties in NY State

2-5 inches:  Northeastern PA

3-6 inches:  Northwestern NJ (including Northern Hunterdon and far Northern Somerset)

4-8 inches:  East Central PA (including Carbon and Monroe Counties)

Below is the latest snow map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge.

And below is the latest snow map from the short-range American model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge.

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