Thursday, January 27, 2022 - Daily Weather Discussion

 

Well, the big question remains the track of the Nor’easter Saturday. It can still be a blizzard for our entire area or a dry day for most or all of us…

There are just so many questions, but please understand, this is completely normal, as it is volatile conditions that create intense storms such as this. The smallest of atmospheric changes can make a massive difference in the eventual outcome. Of course, the big thing that everyone always wants to know is how much snow they will get in their back yard, and we still don’t know the answer to this question as it could be anywhere from a blizzard for most of us, to a dry day for most of us on Saturday.

Let’s start out with tomorrow. Tomorrow we will have a chance of some snow showers from time to time that could leave a coating to an inch of accumulation.

Then tomorrow night a disturbance will start to develop along the Southeastern Coast of the United States. This disturbance will then move northward as another strong disturbance drops down from Canada and merges with this disturbance. This will cause the disturbance to rapidly strengthen as it moves northward becoming a Nor’easter. The eventual effects on our area revolve around the exact track the Nor’easter takes. At the moment, the best guess is that there will be snowfall in much of our area, with the highest amounts most likely along the coast and on Long island, where there is the potential for blizzard conditions and very heavy snowfall, especially on Eastern Long island, with lighter snowfall amounts as you move north and west. Winds may also become a problem with gusts up to 55 mph possible inland and up to 70 mph possible along the coast and especially on Eastern Long Island.

The snow from the Nor’easter would start on Friday night from south to north and end Saturday afternoon and evening from west to east, ending as early as potentially late morning in Eastern PA and late at night on Eastern Long Island.  

Below is the latest snow map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge.

Below is the latest snow map from the short-range American model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge.

Below is the latest maximum wind gust map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge. 

Below is the latest maximum wind gust map from the short-range American map courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge. 

Have a fantastic day!

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