Two big stories this week will be the COLD Thursday morning, and then a very strong Nor’easter will form off the East Coast Friday night and Saturday, but questions remain as to whether it will come close enough to the coast to affect our area…
There will be a chance of a snow shower or flurry today and then the next story will be the extreme cold Thursday morning with lows possibly reaching as low as 10 degrees below zero in Northeastern PA.
Then we will have to watch as a cold front and disturbance will drop down towards our area from Canada on Friday. This cold front and disturbance will combine with a strong disturbance off the East Coast of Florida, pulling that disturbance northward along the coast in the southerly wind flow ahead of the cold front. As the energy from the disturbance dropping down from Canada merges with the strong disturbance off the East Coast, the disturbance will explosively develop due to the extreme temperature differences between a very cold disturbance dropping down from the very cold air in Canada meeting up with the very warm disturbance off the East Coast of Florida in the Gulf Stream. This storm could become very intense, resulting in very heavy snowfall and very strong winds along portions of the Middle Atlantic Coast and up into New England. However, the track f this potential storm is still very uncertain. The storm could remain far off the coast, keeping everyone along the East Coast dry, with the biggest threats being to Eastern Long Island and Cape Cod, or it could come far enough west to bring a blizzard to areas from Eastern Virginia Northward through our area and then northeastward into Maine. We will just have to wait and see, so be sure to check back for updates.
Right now, the model showing the most dramatic effect on our area is the European model, which is posted below, followed by the American model which shows much less effect on our area.
Below is the latest snowfall map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge.
Below is the latest maximum wind gust map from the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the image to enlarge.
Below is the latest snowfall map from the European model ensemble mean (an average of the European model run 50 different ways for various conditions). This should mainly be used to show the possible path of the snow, NOT for snowfall amounts, as if the storm does really affect the areas shown, snowfall amounts would likely increase in the mean was we get closer in time. Click on the image to enlarge
And below is the latest snowfall map from the medium range American model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge.
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