Saturday, January 6, 2024

Saturday, January 6, 2024 - Weather Discussion

 

Some of us will actually get a decent snowstorm today…


Some of us are actually going to slip in a decent snowstorm today as a strong disturbance will be passing through our area. Of course the rain/snow line will be setting up right through our area, running through Southeastern PA (just northwest of Philadelphia), through Mercer, somerset, Union, Hudson, and far Southeastern Bergen County in NJ, NYC, and Long Island. Snow forecasts are rarely easy in our area. There are so many variables, such as rain/snow lines where the slightest shift can make the difference between no snow and significant snow, and snow ratios because the snow will be falling from the clouds, but passing through above freezing air before reaching the ground in most of our area, causing wet snow, which makes accumulation lighter than they otherwise would be. So we give it our best, but please understand how difficult this snowfall forecast is, and that if you are within 20 miles of this rain/snow line even the slightest shift in track would  make a massive difference in the snowfall accumulation.  The precipitation will start this afternoon and early evening from west to east, with the main precipitation ending early Sunday morning and lighter precipitation possible through Sunday.


These are my best guesses as of right now:


Trace to an inch or two:  far Southeastern PA including Philadelphia, Southern Mercer, far Southern Somerset, far Northern Middlesex, far Southeastern Union, and Hudson County in NJ, Staten Island and Brooklyn in NYC, Southwestern and far Eastern Long Island


1-3 inches:  central sections of Southeastern PA, Northern Mercer, far Southeastern Hunterdon, Central Somerset, Central Union, Eastern Essex, far Southeastern Bergen County in NJ, Manhattan, Queens and Bronx in NYC and Central Long Island


3-6 inches:  northwestern sections of Southeastern PA, Northern Hunterdon, far Northern Somerset, Northwestern Union, Essex, Southern Passaic, Central Bergen County in NJ, far Southern Westchester County in NY


4-8 inches:  East Central PA, Warren, Morris, Sussex, Northern Passaic, Northwestern Bergen County in NJ, Northern Rockland and Northern Westchester County in NY, and Southern Fairfield County CT


6-10 inches:  Northeastern PA, Orange and Punam Counties in NY, Northern Fairfield County, CT


Below is the latest snow map from the operational run of the European model, courtesy WeatherBell Analytics.  Click on the image to enlarge. 



After this storm passes, another one will bring us heavy rain Tuesday night with 2-3 inches of rain possible throughout our area, which will cause substantial flooding throughout our area.


Enjoy….




Follow this blog @TheEdgeWeather on X



Follow this blog @Edgeweather@newsie.social



Send weather related photos or videos to edgeweather2@gmail.com



Also, you can access this blog at the following web addresses:  edgeweather.com, theedgeweather.com, edgeweather.net, theedgeweather.net, edgeweather.us, theedgeweather.us, edgeweather.org

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.