Highly likely that a high impact snowfall will hit our area Saturday night and Sunday…
It is appearing highly likely that a high impact snowfall will hit our area Saturday night and Sunday as a strong cold front will pass through our area Friday, bringing very cold air into our area Saturday. On Saturday, two disturbances will then merge along the Gulf Coast and then this disturbance will slide northeastward off the Middle Atlantic Coast Sunday night, just southeast of our area. This will keep our area in the cold zone of the storm, allowing for significant amounts of snow, and the potential for very significant amounts of snow. The dividing line between rain and snow in our area currently appears to be across Southeastern NJ, where the snow could change to rain at the height of the storm, and possibly mix with sleet and freezing rain along the Central NJ Coast and on Eastern Long Island. This changeover line should remain just southeast of Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, keeping those areas all snow as well.
There is a chance that areas a bit north and west of this line in Central and Northeastern NJ, NYC, and on Long Island could mix with sleet and freezing rain at the height of the storm , depending on the actual track of the center of low pressure, which is yet to be determined. In these areas snowfall amounts would then be held down.
It currently appears that areas that remain all snow will accumulate12-18 inches.
The snow will begin late Saturday night, ending very early Monday morning.
It will then be VERY COLD all next week.
There are currently no other storms on the models after this one.
Below is the latest AI European model ensemble mean snowfall map which gives the best location for the heaviest precipitation but does NOT do a good job of showing the changeover line between snow and mixed precipitation, so for that, please refer to my discussion above. In other words the southern extent of this range will not be all snow as indicated on this map, but in areas that receive all snow, it gives you the best idea although likely still a bit low on actual quantities as it is an ensemble mean and these areas will continue to increase in the main band of heaviest precipitation. This can be seen by looking back to compare with yesterday’s posted maps.
Below are the latest European AI ensemble mean snowfall maps courtesy WeatherBell Analytics. Click on the images to enlarge.
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