Saturday Morning Update

The models continue to show the potential for some rain or snow, or both on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Right now, it looks to me as if the precipitation starts as rain on Wednesday during the late morning and changes to snow as the sun starts to set on Wednesday evening. The precipitation will also increase in intensity as the center of the storm moves closer to us on Wednesday evening, which should help the precipitation change to snow. The snow will likely have a hard time accumulating in eastern sections of Northern New Jersey, but will likely start to accumulate in the typically colder locations of northwest New Jersey. The snow should continue in all areas until Thursday morning, when it may change to rain before ending as the sun rises, especially in eastern sections of northern New Jersey. My best guess for snowfall accumulations at this point would be 1-2 inches for eastern sections of northern New Jersey overnight on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with the possibility of 3-6 inches across sections of northwest New Jersey (northern Warren County, all of Sussex County, northern and western Morris County, and western Passaic County). The Friday storm is now in question. There are several possibilities with the Friday storm at this point. It is possible that the energy for this possible Friday storm will merge into this storm on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, making it slightly more significant. It is also possible that the storm could still develop into a very significant storm, which would hit on Friday afternoon into Saturday. There is also a possibility that the storm will develop and miss us to the east off the coast, or it is possible that the storm will not develop at all. Stay tuned. Have a great day everyone. I will post an update this afternoon after the afternoon run of the European model comes in and I have analyzed all of the afternoon model runs.